Donald Trump is closing in on Hillary Clinton.
According to the RealClearPolitics poll, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead to a single percentage point. Clinton’s lead has shrunk to 3 points in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-n577726 and Trump is up by two points in the ABC News/Washington Post poll http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1177a1ClintonTrump.pdf
And the latest poll shows that Clinton’s lead in California has evaporated.
All is not lost. According to the latest Gallup poll, the approval rating for Barack Obama (remember him?) is now over 50 per cent which is a good predictor of the vote share of his party’s nominee.
The bottom line is that most pundits believe 2016 is still Clinton’s race to lose. But as Politico points out, there is a clear path for her to lose it.
First is to take the Hispanic vote for granted. For sure Hispanic American strongly dislike Trump and residents are rushing to become citizens, and registering to vote, just so they can cast a ballot against him in November. That has Clinton supporters believing that she’ll win crucial victories in Florida where 17 per cent of the vote was Hispanic in 2012. But if Trump keeps his incendiary language to a minimum – and we can expect him to do that – there is no guarantee that Clinton’s energy will hold for the many months until the election.
Secondly, there is the risk of alienating young voters who were solidly behind Bernie Sanders.
Then there is the risk of the Republicans finding another place to go and choosing someone else besides Trump.
And finally, she could be left fumbling on trade where Trump has been winning over working class union voters.
Still, November is some way off and Trump could always self-destruct. But he probably won’t. The election is there for Clinton to lose.