RBA holds cash rate steady at 4.35%
— but it’s made one thing crystal clear: if inflation starts to dig in, it won’t hesitate to raise rates again.
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia, built on the traditional lands of the Kulin Nation. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at businessacumen.biz
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 20 in our series for 2026 and today’s date is Friday June 19
First, I’ll be talking to I’ll be talking to John Hanna, strategic advisor of est Financial about why most people sabotage their own wealth, the psychology behind property success, the biggest financial myths holding Australians back and how to move from fear to financial confidence
And I’ll be talking to Independent economist Nicholas Gruen about how much the AFL stadium in Hobart will cost Tasmanian taxpayers.
But first let’s talk to John Hanna
So what’s happening in the news?
Our first story today: oil markets and shipping are bracing for a long, slow road back to normal in the Gulf, even after news of a possible breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the US and Iran had reached an agreement to gradually reopen the strait — one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, handling around a fifth of global oil trade. Under the deal, Iran would need to clear mines from the waterway and stop charging tolls, while the US would lift the naval blockade it had placed on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. Trump put it bluntly on social media, essentially telling the world’s shipping fleets to get moving again. But here’s the catch: getting back to normal won’t happen overnight. Right now there are roughly 500 merchant vessels stuck in the Gulf after more than three months of conflict — down from the usual 130 ships passing through the strait every single day before things escalated. Since late February, dozens of ships have been attacked and Iran has seized a couple of container vessels, so it’s no surprise owners are nervous. Even a transit that normally takes about eight hours becomes a slow grind when you’re dealing with hundreds of ships needing to move in a coordinated, careful way — industry bodies are warning that if everyone tries to sail at once without coordination, you get congestion, erratic movements, and basically chaos. Analysts are also pointing to the Red Sea as a cautionary tale. Even after a deal was struck with the Houthis last year, shipping traffic through that route is still running more than half below pre-conflict levels — owners simply haven’t regained confidence. The expectation is something similar could play out in the Gulf. The bottom line from energy analysts: don’t expect oil markets to loosen up quickly. Some are predicting tightness could persist right through 2027, given how long it takes to rebuild shipping logistics, repair damaged infrastructure, and restock depleted oil inventories. And there’s a bigger worry hanging over all of this — because Iran retains effective operational control of the strait, any reopening could be partial, fragile, and vulnerable to being shut down again at a moment’s notice. So while the headlines might read as good news, the reality on the ground — and on the water — looks like a much longer and bumpier road ahead.
So this weekend gave us a preview of what’s coming for markets this year — SpaceX’s IPO went off perfectly. Shares priced at $135, and by Saturday close they’d jumped 19% above that. Tens of thousands of Aussie retail investors got in too — CommSec alone had 30,000 customers apply before cutting off orders. We’re talking the biggest public float ever: $75 billion raised, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion pre-listing — now sitting around $2.1 trillion, or about $3 trillion Aussie. But here’s the thing that’s got the professionals nervous: that valuation is roughly 100 times revenue, and SpaceX is still burning billions a year. One fund manager described buying in as basically a lottery ticket — might pay off long-term, but at 100 times sales, that’s a big bet. And SpaceX is really just the warm-up act. Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed IPO paperwork this month, both eyeing valuations just under $1 trillion. Between the three of them, we could see $200 billion raised this year — which one economist points out is close to matching everything raised on US markets in all of last year, combined. There’s a split among Aussie investors too — some are already in. Pengana Capital had a pre-IPO stake, though it’s flagging the usual lock-up restrictions, meaning insiders can’t dump shares for around 180 days. Others, like Insignia/MLC, are sitting it out for now — though they’ll likely end up owning SpaceX anyway once it gets added to major indices, since index funds are forced buyers regardless of valuation concerns. And that index-inclusion point is worth flagging because it’s a preview of what could happen with Anthropic and OpenAI too — once these companies are big enough to join the S&P or Nasdaq indices, that triggers automatic, price-insensitive buying from every fund tracking those benchmarks. That’s a clean enough segue if you’re coming from a segment on big personalities throwing money into established institutions — this one’s about money flowing into the next generation of mega-caps, and whether retail investors are along for the ride or just along for the hype.
Big news out of the resources world this week — Gina Rinehart, Australia’s richest person, has just bought herself a stake in SpaceX worth more than a billion US dollars. And to put that in perspective, this is the single biggest bet Hancock Prospecting has ever made outside of iron ore. It comes hot on the heels of SpaceX’s IPO last week — the largest in history — which finished its first day of trading valuing the company at $2.1 trillion and made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. So why is Rinehart piling in? In her words, she sees SpaceX as a rare business — led by what she calls a truly exceptional person, technically world-class, and operating in sectors that matter for the long haul. She’s framing it as part of a bigger picture too: the need for the West to keep investing in technology and innovation, especially given SpaceX’s reach across space, connectivity, and AI. There’s also a personal dimension here. Rinehart and Musk have built their fortunes on opposite sides of the planet, but they share a lot of common ground politically — free speech, cutting government waste, reducing debt. They’ve actually met several times, including a sit-down the day after Trump’s 2024 election win, where they talked through exactly those issues. And there’s a strategic angle for Hancock too. The company has been quietly building one of the biggest critical minerals and rare earths portfolios outside China, and CEO Garry Korte says there’s real potential for Hancock and SpaceX to work together down the track — as demand grows for the materials needed to support all this advanced tech. That said, a Hancock spokesperson made clear: no plans to invest further in the space sector beyond this. So — Mrs. Rinehart making her biggest non-mining bet ever, on the world’s newest trillionaire, with rare earths potentially the glue that ties it all together. Big story to watch.
Australia’s richest person has reportedly made a preliminary approach to buy Australian Community Media (owner of The Canberra Times, Newcastle Herald, Illawarra Mercury) from Alex Waislitz and Anthony Catalano — but got knocked back. This fits a pattern: Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting already holds big stakes in Fox Corp and Trump Media & Technology Group, plus Tesla, Nvidia, Meta and defence stocks. There’s also a connected thread — Bruce McWilliam has been buying up Southern Cross Media shares (funded by Rinehart-linked money), positioning for a possible board seat or chairmanship there, with Waislitz publicly backing him.
The Reserve Bank has held the cash rate steady at 4.35% — but it’s made one thing crystal clear: if inflation starts to dig in, it won’t hesitate to raise rates again. All nine board members voted to hold, which was pretty much what markets expected. The RBA says the three rate hikes we’ve already seen this year — back in February, March, and May — are doing their job. The economy is slowing, financial conditions are tighter, and there are early signs of weakness in jobs, consumer spending, and housing. But inflation is still too high for the board’s comfort, and they want more time to see how things play out — especially with the ongoing disruption to global oil supplies. Speaking of oil — there is some good news on that front. The Trump administration and Iran have struck a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had been a big inflationary headache for the RBA. But the board’s being cautious, saying it’s early days and there are still scenarios where prices go higher and growth goes lower than they’re currently forecasting. Meanwhile, the federal budget has thrown a few curveballs into the mix — proposed changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax, and a new minimum tax rate on capital gains are all things the board will be watching closely. So where does this leave us? Economists are divided. Independent economist Justin Fabo says he’s less convinced the RBA needs to hike again — particularly if the jobs market deteriorates faster than expected. HSBC’s Paul Bloxham agrees the economy is weakening quickly, but warns we shouldn’t forget the lesson from last year: don’t declare victory on inflation too soon. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 58% chance of another rate rise before the end of the year. So for now — it’s a watching brief. The RBA is keeping its powder dry, but it’s far from done.
The Albanese government may speed up carve-outs from its new capital gains tax regime, potentially folding them into the budget legislation it’s pushing through the Senate within the fortnight. Originally, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said exemptions for start-ups and early-stage tech businesses—who’d be hit hard due to low or zero cost bases—would come in a second tranche later this year. But with mounting backlash over the CGT changes hitting shares and small-to-medium businesses, not just housing, the government wants to use the carve-outs as a circuit breaker sooner rather than later. Chalmers is set to release draft carve-out proposals this week, ahead of parliament resuming. With Greens support, the government plans to pass the CGT and negative gearing changes by July 2—a full year before they take effect—to defuse the political fallout early. The likely carve-outs would let eligible businesses, mainly start-ups and biotech, keep the existing 50% CGT discount. There’s also talk of lifting or indexing the $2 million small business turnover threshold—unchanged since 1997—with the small business lobby pushing for $6 million. Reactions are split. Business Council of Australia’s Bran Black says the Senate inquiry into these changes is wildly inadequate—he pointed out a nine-month inquiry was once held just over tariffs on mushrooms and horsehair, so “the most consequential tax changes in a quarter century” deserve more scrutiny. Meanwhile, economists Saul Eslake and Michael Brennan want the government to scrap the proposed 30% minimum CGT rate and bring back five-year income averaging from the pre-1999 system, arguing it’s unfair for someone earning under $45,000 to pay 30% on a capital gain while wage earners on similar amounts pay less overall. On the flip side, former ACCC boss Graeme Samuel says there shouldn’t be any carve-outs at all, accusing the government of caving to powerful vested interests if it grants them.
Bundaberg flooded for the third time in 16 years, the local pub’s still shut three months later, and the council controversially rejected a fully-funded $175 million levee over maintenance cost worries — only to get flooded again. It’s a national story: 240,000 homes face meaningful flood risk and 80% aren’t insured for it; the Climate Council reckons half a million properties will be uninsurable by 2030. Premiums are up 51% nationally over five years, with regions like the Northern Rivers seeing 60%+ of households in “affordability stress.” APRA is warning this is becoming a systemic financial stability issue. The political fight is over who pays for resilience infrastructure versus relief cheques after the fact — plus debate over UK-style cross-subsidy schemes (Flood Re) that critics say could blunt price signals and encourage building in dangerous spots anyway.
And that’s it for this week.
And next week, I’ll be talking to Power Projects founder Chris Power about how leaders can better respond when the fundamentals of their organisations are shifting.
And I’ll be talking to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the markets and inflation.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
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