NAB modelling shows Australians born in the 1990s are the first generation in 40 years who aren’t on track to out-earn the generation before them.
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia, built on the traditional lands of the Kulin Nation. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at businessacumen.biz
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 30 in our series for 2026 and today’s date is Friday August 28.
First, I’ll be talking to Alice Needham, co-founder and director of Wagalot Brands, an innovative company turning surplus produce from Prahran Market (meat, fish and vege) into dog treats and meal toppers – helping reduce the 7.6 million tonnes of Australian food waste produced each year. A significant portion of this historically went to landfill but many markets now use commercial dehydrators to tun vegetable and fruit scrap into nutrient-rich fertilisers. Still, Wagalot produces treats that dogs love and 50% of its profits go to dog and environmental rescue programs
And I’ll be talking to Indeed economist Callam Pickering about the latest jobs figures. He forecasts Australia’s unemployment could go as high as 4.7%.
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But first let’s talk to. Alice Needham.
So what’s happening in the news?
Big one to watch this week: China is putting Washington on notice. After the Trump administration rolled out fresh sanctions targeting companies in Hong Kong and mainland China over their Iran dealings, Beijing says if the US tries to go further — especially against major Chinese banks — it will hit back hard. Here’s the context: China buys about 90% of Iran’s oil, mostly through independent “teapot” refiners that Beijing has openly told to ignore US sanctions. So this is a real pressure point. And the timing couldn’t be trickier — this is all playing out just a month before Trump and Xi are set to meet in Washington, a summit everyone’s watching because it’s expected to extend the trade war truce the two sides struck last October. China’s foreign ministry didn’t hold back, saying they’ll “take all necessary measures” to protect their interests, and blasted the sanctions as having no basis in international law. And remember, Beijing’s not bluffing on follow-through — they proved last year they can squeeze US manufacturing through their grip on critical minerals. But there’s a more interesting subplot here too: analysts say China’s actually pretty keen to see the whole US-Iran conflict cool down, mainly because the fighting keeps disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — and that’s a bigger threat to China’s own oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq than anything else. So Beijing’s walking a tightrope: talk tough on sanctions, but quietly push Tehran toward the negotiating table. Bottom line — this is a slow-burn story, but with Trump-Xi just weeks away, any escalation here could ripple straight into the bigger trade relationship.
So here’s a wild one — Austrac, Australia’s financial crimes watchdog, just wrapped up something called “Operation Claw” with the country’s biggest banks, and the findings are eye-opening. They found potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in suspected fraudulent home loans, mostly tied to Sydney properties. The trick? Fake payslips, fake company documents — the kind of stuff that’s now way easier to whip up thanks to AI. To be clear, this isn’t evidence of massive money laundering — more like banks getting caught flat-footed on document verification. As one analyst put it, criminals are essentially out-innovating the banks with AI faster than banks can build defenses against it. The bigger picture here is policy: banks have been lobbying for years to ditch payslips altogether and instead get secure access to verified Tax Office income data — something Australian Banking Association chief Simon Birmingham has been pushing hard for. The government’s put $62 million toward exploring this. But until that system exists, banks are stuck playing whack-a-mole with AI-generated fakes.
This one’s a bit inside-baseball but juicy. The RBA has, for years, used a quarterly survey of about 40 union officials to help gauge long-term inflation expectations — a key input into interest rate decisions. In its June meeting minutes, the RBA flagged that unions’ inflation expectations had spiked to 3.5% — way above the RBA’s 2-3% target and out of step with what economists or markets are pricing in. The ACTU’s response? They pulled the plug on the survey entirely, saying they didn’t realize it was feeding directly into RBA rate decisions and worried it wasn’t methodologically sound. It’s a pretty awkward position for the union movement — the survey they run was arguably strengthening the case for more rate hikes, which unions have been vocally against. This all went down right as long-time ACTU secretary Sally McManus was on her way out the door.
The full transcripts from that secretive Nevada trial over control of the Murdoch Family Trust have finally been made public, and it’s basically the plot of the HBO show that seems to have inspired parts of it. At stake: control of Fox Corp and News Corp after Rupert’s death. A crucial decision by a Nevada judicial officer in late 2024, recently made public, exposes the friction among Murdoch’s heirs and includes direct references to the HBO drama series Succession, which was purportedly inspired by the media family. The original trust setup gave Rupert’s four eldest kids — Prue, Elisabeth, Lachlan, James — equal voting power, meaning the three siblings could theoretically team up and vote Lachlan out. Rupert and Lachlan tried to rewrite the trust to hand Lachlan permanent control, but a Nevada probate commissioner rejected it. So Lachlan ended up just buying his siblings out for $5 billion last year. The transcripts reveal some amazing details — Elisabeth’s lawyer literally wrote a memo after watching an episode of Succession, mapping out exactly this scenario. There’s also testimony about Rupert and Lachlan quietly plotting to push out News Corp CEO Robert Thomson by merging News Corp and Fox back together. And there’s a genuinely poignant moment where Rupert, at 93, talks about confronting his own mortality — noting that of all his kids, only Lachlan showed up to his most recent wedding.
So there’s new modelling out for Reputex, they’re the firm that designed Labor’s safeguard mechanism back in 2022 and it shows Australia’s manufacturers and resource companies could be facing a huge jump in compliance costs if the government tightens the scheme to match the Paris Agreement’s toughest target, keeping warming to 1.5 degrees. Right now, carbon credits sit around $39. Under a 1.5-degree pathway, Reputex reckons that price would need to hit $220 by the early 2030s — that’s five and a half times higher. This is landing right as Energy Minister Chris Bowen kicks off a review of the Safeguard Mechanism, looking at whether it needs to align with Labor’s new 2035 target of cutting emissions 62% below 2005 levels. Business groups — the Business Council’s Bran Black among them — are warning that tightening the rules too much could scare off investment and push companies offshore. Meanwhile, the Coalition and One Nation are both promising to scrap the policy altogether if elected, and Angus Taylor’s pushing a plan to ramp up gas production instead. Reputex’s Hugh Grossman says Australia’s current settings are really tracking more like a 2-degree pathway, not 1.5 — so getting in line with Paris would mean much steeper annual cuts and, yeah, a lot more pain for companies’ bottom lines. Worth noting though — even at $220, that’s still way below what some international forecasts predict other countries might need to pay by 2050.
This one’s a gut-punch stat from NAB chief economist Sally Auld. Turns out Australians born in the 1990s are the first generation in 40 years who aren’t on track to out-earn the generation before them. Every decade before that — the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s — each cohort did better than the last. That streak’s broken. NAB CEO Andrew Irvine used this to make a bigger point in a speech to business customers in Melbourne — he’s basically saying Australia risks getting stuck in a low-productivity rut that’s been building for decades. His view is Australia’s got all the right ingredients — resources, strong institutions, good infrastructure, talented people — but keeps tripping over its own feet with overregulation, weak tax settings, housing shortages and expensive energy. He did point to some bright spots, like WA’s push on housing supply, and held up the US and Singapore as models worth copying. But his big warning is around AI — he thinks it’s a make-or-break moment, and economies that embrace tech change tend to do way better than ones that try to protect old industries. The line that stings a bit: he says Australia’s current mindset shows “a lack of ambition, a lack of urgency and a lack of action” — and that’s not exactly the energy you want walking into an AI-driven economy.
And the profit reporting season is in its final week. Bendigo and Adelaide Bank posted a net profit of $375.1 million in fiscal 2026. Coles posted $1.09 billion in net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June, up 1%. Supermarket giant Woolworths has delivered full-year profit after tax of $1.14 billion in the 12 months ended 28 June 2026, 18.1% higher than the previous year. Endeavour’s net profit sank to $52 million in fiscal 2026, down 88% from a year ago. Ansell’s net profit adjusted for a one-off benefit from tariff refunds rose 15.8% to $US212.3 million ($A296 million). Reece Group, which sells bathtubs, tapware and plumbing supplies, suffered a 2.8% decline in net profit after tax to $308 million for the 12 months ended June 30, 2026, Health insurer nib has posted a 5.9% fall in net profit to $186.9 million. Challenger telecoms company Aussie Broadband’s profit rose 7.55% to $35 million. Ampol’s net profit on a replacement cost basis surged to $857.2 million in the six months ended June 30, from $180.2 million a year earlier. New Zealand-based telecommunication provider Chorus’ net profit jumped to $NZ37 million ($A31 million) in fiscal 2026, up from $NZ4 million a year ago. WA lithium miner PLS Group’s net profit after tax came in at $526 million – up from a loss of $196 million a year ago. Adore Beauty has reported a net loss of $4.3 million in the year to June 30, down from a $761,000 profit a year earlier. Navigator Global Investments Limited’s assets under management have risen by 24% to $US104 million ($142.3 million) in FY26. City Chic Collective has posted a net loss of $6.6 million for the full year. Infrastructure services provider Ventia Group posted $128.2 million in net profit after tax for the six months ended 30 June. Entertainment and hospitality group EVT has reported a year-on-year increase in net profit after tax to $51 million over the 12 months ended 30 June 2026. Regal Partners has posted a $94.1 million in net profit after tax for the first half ended 30 June 2026. Aged care group Regis Healthcare has posted a 14% increase in net profit of $55.7 million for the year to June 30. Homeware retailer Adairs swung to a statutory net loss of $39.4 million for the year ended 30 June. Software reseller Data#3 shares flagged a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit after tax to $55 million. Investigative and intelligence software provider Nuix swung to a full-year statutory net profit of $16.4 million for the year ended 30 June. AUB Group’s underlying net profit rose 12.2% to $224.6 million, while reported net profit fell 46.7% to $96 million. G8 Education, the country’s largest for-profit childcare operator, swung into a $38.7 million loss in the half year ended June 30 2026. Engineering services provider Monadelphous Group posted $127.3 million in net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June, up 52.1% year on year. Metallurgical coal exporter Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure posted $49.2 million in net profit after tax for the six months ended 30 June, up 14.2% year on year. Gas giant Woodside Energy has reported half-year net profit after tax of $1.67 billion in the six months to 30 June 2026, a 27% increase on the previous corresponding period. Defence manufacturer Electro Optic Systems has posted a $33.7 million net loss in the six months to 30 June 2026. Hotel commerce and guest acquisition platform SiteMinder has narrowed its full-year statutory net loss after tax to $11.34 million for the year ended 30 June. Fintech Tyro Payments has reported a full-year net profit after tax of $24.72 million in the 12 months to 30 June 2026. Westfield owner Scentre Group posted $974.5 million in net profit after tax for the six months ended 30 June. Oil refiner Viva Energy has reported half-year net profit after tax of $371.1 million in the six months to 30 June 2026 on a replacement cost basis. ARB Corporation’s net profit after tax was $92.4 million, down 5.2%. Diversified financial services Humm Group posted $15.7 million in statutory net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June. Flight Centre posted $149.3 million in statutory net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June, up 38% year on year. Nine Entertainment posted $147.2 million in statutory net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June, up 11% year on year. Copper miner Sandfire Resources delivered full-year net profit after tax of $US354.2 million ($A494.4 million) in the 12 months ended 30 June 2026. Gold miner Perseus Mining posted $US480.5 million ($A670.7 million) in net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June, up 14% year on year. Uranium producer Paladin Energy narrowed its full-year net loss to $US9.1 million ($A12.7 million) for the year ended 30 June. Alternative asset manager HMC Capital posted a net loss of $49.1 million for the year ended 30 June, swinging from a $147 million profit the previous year. Tourism and ferry operator Kelsian has reported a 16.6% year-on-year increase in net profit after tax to $63.5 million in the 12 months to 30 June 2026. Gambling company Tabcorp has delivered full-year net profit after tax of $46.3 million in the 12 months ended 30 June 2026, 26.5% higher than the previous year. Jewellery retailer Lovisa posted $95.6 million in net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June 2026, up 11.7% year on year. Logistics software provider WiseTech Global has delivered full-year profit after tax of $178.7 million in the 12 months ended 30 June 2026, 11% lower than the preceding year. Fintech company Netwealth posted $60.6 million in net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June, down 47.9% year on year. Counter-drone defence manufacturer DroneShield posted $32.2 million in net profit after tax for the six months ended 30 June, down from a $2.1 million profit in the previous corresponding period. Engineering group Worley has delivered full-year profit after tax adjusted of $306 million in the 12 months ended 30 June 2026, 35.6% lower than the previous year. Domino’s Pizza posted a $134.2 million net loss after tax in the 12 months to 30 June 2026. Critical minerals company Lynas Rare Earths posted $222.4 million in net profit after tax for the year ended 30 June up from $8 million in the preceding year. Polynovo’s EBITDA increased 8.1% to $12.1 million; underlying EBITDA was up 50.4% to $13.4 million. Steadfast Group’s underlying EBITA was $669.8m, up 13.8%
And that’s it for this week.
And next week, I’ll be talking to Internal Consulting Group CEO David Moloney. His company ranked among the world’s top 200 consulting firms by Forbes and Statista. He has spent decades helping organisations solve complex business problems and studying the world’s most successful companies.
And I’ll be talking to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver about the latest profit reporting season.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
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