There are two chances of Australia getting an exemption from Trump’s tariffs – Buckley’s and none!
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple Podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at www.businessacumen.biz.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com.
I am Leon Gettler. My job is to review and monitor the week’s news in business, finance and economics. I bring it all to you, every week.
This is episode number 5 in our series for 2025 and today’s date is Friday March 7.
First, I’ll be talking to Bob Huber, the chief security officer at Tenable, about how why we are struggling to fight the Ransomware business and the global cybercrime industry.
And I’ll be speaking to independent economist Saul Eslake about Australia’s latest inflation figures, the outlook for any further rate cuts and what impact Trump’s tariffs and inflation-inducing policies will have on central banks, including our own RBA, on interest rates and economic growth.
But first, let’s talk to Bob Huber.
So what’s happening in the news?
Global investors have reacted with horror to the introduction of US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China, and what looks like a trade war with Beijing declaring it would impose a 10 to 15% levy on US agricultural goods, including soyabeans, beef, corn and wheat, from March 10 and Canada saying it would immediately retaliate with a 25% tariff on $30bn of US imports, and vowed similar action against a further $125bn of US goods 21 days later. What’s happening in stock markets? Well, stocks in Europe and Asia have fallen with car-makers including Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler Truck who have complex cross-border supply chains being particularly hard hit. In London, the FTSE 100 index of the UK’s biggest publicly-listed companies, ended the day down 1.2%. The falls in Europe and Asia follow a late-sell-off on Wall Street with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices having their worst session of the year. A protracted fight could dent global growth and accelerate inflation, Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, told Bloomberg Television. Investors are now fretting about inflation and U.S. growth. Some are concerned the US could fall into recession. These factors, combined with the stock market, could force the White House into a rethink on tariffs. But who knows? Trump is predictably unpredictable. Particularly with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick shrugging off concerns about potential pain for US households. “There may well be short-term price movements but in the long term it’s going to be completely different. This is going to be the greatest America,” he told CNBC.
Musks’ team of Musketeers, aged between 19 and 24 who are barely out and some still in college are making huge mistakes in cutting US government infrastructure. They claiming credit for cancelling procurement agreements that had been completed years earlier on their website. While George W. Bush was president, the U.S. Coast Guard signed a contract to get administrative help from a company in Northern Virginia. It paid $144,000, and the contract was completed by June 30, 2005. Twenty years passed. Presidents came and went. Last week, Elon Musk’s restructuring team, called the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, said it had just canceled the long-dead Coast Guard contract — and in doing so, saved U.S. taxpayers $53.7 million. They didn’t save anything. The contract was long finished. “These are not savings,” said Lisa Shea Mundt, whose firm, The Pulse of GovCon, tracks federal spending. “The money’s been spent. Period. Point blank.” These mistakes do not mean DOGE has not made cuts to the federal government. It has, deeply, by pushing widespread layoffs of employees and cancellations of active contracts, and by helping instigate the demise of the U.S. Agency for International Development. But the repeated errors have raised questions about the quality and veracity of the information that the Musk team is putting out, including whether it is being misled by other departments. The mistakes also seem to call into question the team members’ competence — whether they understand the government well enough to cut it while avoiding catastrophe. “It’s obvious that they don’t understand,” said Eric Franklin, the chief executive of the firm Erimax, who advises the government on contracting procedures. His own firm was the subject of one of the errors on DOGE’s “wall of receipts.” Mr. Musk’s group claimed it had saved $14 million by canceling one of its contracts — which had ended in 2021. “It’s really akin to a bull in a china shop,” Mr. Franklin said. “And what do you end up with? It’s just a big mess.” Then again, it makes sense. What was anyone doing between the ages of 19 and 24?
The reality is Europe faces a huge bill to defend Ukraine. The question is whether Europe, facing high debt loads, chronically low growth and looming tariffs imposed by Trump, afford more military spending? Ending the Russia-Ukraine war carries a high cost. This coincides with President Trump ordering a pause to all military aid to Ukraine, including weapons already in transit, sharply escalating pressure on Kyiv to agree to peace negotiations with Russia. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain rolled out a four-point plan over the weekend at a gathering of European leaders and Ukraine leader Mr. Zelensky. Mr. Starmer’s proposal includes an Anglo-French “coalition of the willing” to defend any eventual deal for Ukraine, which could mean “boots on the ground and planes in the air”. Britain also lent 2.6 billion pounds (that’s A$5.3billion) to Ukraine to help bolster its military forces. Even before the summit of EU leaders following Zelensky’s disastrous meeting with Trump in the Oval Office, credit agencies warned about Europe’s finances. For example, Fitch Ratings has warned that increasing the military spending of NATO members to 3% of their G.D.P. — which is still short of the 5% that Mr. Trump wants — could force European governments to make unpopular spending cuts that weaken social safety nets. The stakes are high. Failure to help Ukraine could eventually push European nations into accepting a deal that favors President Vladimir Putin of Russia. That could test the bloc’s cohesion, analysts say — but might be welcomed by those interested in seeing a divided Europe. “Trump, Putin (and possibly Elon Musk?) all seem to dislike the European Union,” Holger Schmieding, an economist at the German bank Berenberg, wrote in a research note on Monday. “They would prefer to deal one-by-one with a panoply of minnows and middling countries than with a union that represents the second biggest market in the world.” Needless to say, shares in Europe’s defense giants — including the British defense contractor BAE Systems, the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and the Italian aerospace and defense specialist Leonardo — have hit record highs.
There are two chances of Australia getting an exemption from Trump’s tariffs – Buckley’s and none! That’s the message from Donald Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro who has accused Australia of dumping subsidised, below-cost aluminium into the United States. That’s right – he’s drawing comparisons to the behaviour of Russia and China, amid rising concern the Albanese government will fail to secure an exemption from tariffs. Just days after Treasurer Jim Chalmers visited Washington to plead the government’s case for a carve-out from 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium, the staunch protectionist whose goal is to bolster American manufacturing said ending country-specific exemptions “sends a clear message”.
Billionaire heiress Heloise Pratt has accused ex-husband Alex Waislitz of taking more than $21m in loans to buy a luxury Melbourne apartment and also use funds to purchase property for his fiancee and back companies connected to her music career. Ms Pratt has alleged Mr Waislitz authorised transfers of $20m to buy an apartment in the Saint Moritz project, built by prominent rich lister Tim Gurner, from their shared company Tiga Trading and subsidiaries without her approval and knowledge, even though she is a director, latest court documents in an ongoing legal stoush reveal. Mr Waislitz is also accused of spending about $1.23m from the same company on two units in the exclusive suburb of Toorak occupied “rent free” by his now fiancee Rebekah Behbahani and her sister Venous (Venus). Ms Pratt alleged Mr Waislitz loaned money to a company called “Behani Music Production” and “RB Noms” which trades as Flytime Promotions, likely in support of Ms Behbahani’s pop music career. The Supreme Court documents, are the latest in a messy legal fight playing ourt in public after negotiations about ownership of their jointly owned $1.3bn Thorney Investments business broke down last year. “Whilst Alexander Waislitz has either alone or with (an advisor) exercised de facto control over the Halex Family Trust … Alexander Waislitz has … acted dishonestly for his own benefit and engaged in criminality,” an updated statement of claim alleged. Of course, the Pratt heiress knows about messy family relationships. The love child of her billionaire father Richard Pratt has lodged a multi-billion dollar inheritance claim, alleging Anthony Pratt and his siblings Heloise and Fiona Geminder were aware of their half-sister’s position in the family and regularly saw their father’s “bonds of love and affection” for her.
Caroline Heidemann, who has accused WiseTech Global’s billionaire executive chairman Richard White of providing her with a visa and financial support in return for sex has been assisted by lawyers at Anti-Slavery Australia as she secures a special arrangement needed to fight her case. Heidemann has alleged in the Federal Court that White, who she had worked for, “made it clear that financial assistance was contingent upon” her “engaging in a personal and sexual relationship with him”. That’s akin to sex-slavery.
Australia’s property market emerged from a shallow downturn in February as the first rate cut in over four years lifted buyer sentiment, although the still-high borrowing costs and elevated prices are clouding the outlook. Figures from property consultant CoreLogic showed prices across the nation rose 0.3% in February from January, ending three months of declines or no growth. That helped national prices settle just 0.1% lower from their peak hit in October. Melbourne and Hobart, where prices fell over the past year, led the gains, with both rising 0.4% in the month. Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director, said the bounce in prices has more to do with an uptick in sentiment than any immediate improvement in borrowing capacity as rates were only lowered by a quarter-point which doesn’t deliver that much money to anyone. “The rate-cutting cycle is very fresh and is likely to be drawn out… interest rate settings are likely to remain in restrictive territory for some time yet,” said Lawless. “Until home loan serviceability improves more substantially, it’s hard to see housing markets moving into a material growth trend.” The Reserve Bank of Australia has cautioned that any further easing will be gradual, with market pricing suggesting just two more rate cuts to 3.6% by the end of the year.
A Coalition government would force public servants to work from the office five days per week. Opposition finance spokeswoman Jane Hume says this will put an end to generous work-from-home arrangements that she claims have become unsustainable and unproductive. After surging during the pandemic, work-for-home arrangements have been in retreat across the globe as companies announce office attendance mandates under the guise of promoting collaboration and innovation. One of US President Donald Trump’s first actions after taking office in January was to order all federal government departments to terminate remote work arrangements “as soon as possible”
The AFL has admitted its integrity system for online gambling is seriously deficient and struggles to identity whether players, coaches and staff are using inside information to manipulate betting markets, in breach of their contracts. Leaked documents reveal executives have expressed alarm about an “unprecedented” increase in “integrity risks” posed by the wagering industry, which has exploded in popularity since the pandemic with more than 80 bookmakers now taking bets on its games. The documents reveal the AFL lacks “visibility across a broad cross section of betting turnover” and only sees the “tip of the iceberg”. It has also raised concern about several “bottlenecks” and “blindspots” that have prevented it from quickly detecting if players, coaches and staff are betting on games or sharing sensitive information. These concerns, which have not been spoken about publicly, have been used by the AFL to justify a campaign to seize an even bigger share of the money Australians gamble on its games. This is despite sustained criticism for its close association with the wagering sector and its gambling advertising being viewed by impressionable children.
And speaking of the AFL, lawyers say former star footballer Nicky Winmar could spearhead a class action against the AFL, which is being sued by Indigenous players who suffered racist abuse on the field. Winmar, now 59, was at the centre of one of the league’s most iconic moments three decades ago when he was photographed defiantly lifting his jumper and pointing to his skin while being racially abused by Collingwood fans at Victoria Park. Michel Margalit, the lawyer running the class action on behalf of the players, told reporters outside the Supreme Court of Victoria Winmar was a group member in the suit and was willing to become a co-plaintiff in the case. “He really stands to fight to eradicate racial vilification in the game,” Ms Margalit said. “Mr Winmar suffered prolonged racial vilification in the workplace and this certainly culminated in that famous moment when he was photographed in 1993.” The lawsuit was originally brought by Phil and James Krakouer, and includes an unspecified number of Indigenous players. The plaintiffs allege they suffered injury, loss and damage after the AFL failed to protect them from racial abuse from spectators, opposition players and coaches. Any proposed bid for him to become a co-lead plaintiff in the case would also be subject to court approval. Mark Costello KC, representing the AFL, told the court his client was seeking for the class action to be dismissed and that there were “fundamental difficulties with the case theory”. Mr Costello said the matter had been going for 18 months, and expressed frustration that the plaintiffs had not finalised a statement of claim. On Monday, Justice Andrew Keogh granted the plaintiffs a further two months to build their case.
And that’s it for this week. And next week, I’ll be talking to Trilogy Hotels CEO Scott Boyes to discuss the adoption of independent hotel management models in Australia – a relatively new and unfamiliar model in Australia, despite being the preferred and most predominant model in both the US and Europe.
And I’ll be talking to AMP chief economist Shane Oliver about the latest profit reporting season.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com
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Looking forward to next week’s episode of Talking Business.
