Albanese government is now factoring surging oil prices into the May budget, with estimates suggesting inflation could climb from 3.8% toward a peak of nearly 5%.
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at https://www.businessacumen.biz/.
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 7 for 2026 and today’s date is Friday, March 20. First, I’ll be speaking to Tereza Murray from TMPlus. She’s a leading Franchise and Business Consultant in Australia and New Zealand with over 27 years of experience in the franchising industry. We’ll talk about the franchising industry and the TM Plus initiative of CorAlliance which offers a smart, sustainable growth pathway for business owners who want something more flexible than a franchise and more involved than a licence. It’s a modern solution that removes many of the barriers associated with franchising, licensing, or expanding through employees without sacrificing brand integrity or momentum.
And 6I’ll be talking to James Gruber Equity Markets Strategist at CommSec about the market response to oil prices, inflation and central banks lifting rates.
But first, let’s talk to Tereza Murray.
So what’s happening in the news?
President Trump is finding out the hard way that ‘America First’ can be a lonely place when you actually need a hand. He’s currently calling on allies in Europe and Asia to send warships into the Strait of Hormuz to reopen the world’s most important oil chokepoint—but the global RSVP list is looking pretty empty.” The irony here is thick. For years, Trump has hammered these same allies over NATO spending, slapped them with tariffs, and threatened to pull out of security pacts. Now, with a fifth of the world’s oil at risk and prices soaring, he’s asking them to jump into a war he started—and previously claimed he’d already won. As Rachel Rizzo from the Observer Research Foundation put it: Washington is officially discovering exactly how much goodwill it burned over the last few years.”
The Response (The “No-Shows”)
- The UK: Even the closest ally of the US is keeping its distance. Prime Minister Keir Starmer basically told Trump ‘no’ on sending aircraft carriers, opting for ‘collective planning’ instead. Trump, predictably, wasn’t happy, calling the move a disappointment.
- Germany & Spain: They’re worried about escalation. The German Defense Minister even poked the bear a bit, asking what a few European frigates could possibly achieve that the ‘mighty US Navy’ can’t do alone.
- Asia: Japan and South Korea—who get nearly all their oil from this region—are staying noncommittal. They’re wary of getting dragged into a war without a UN mandate, especially after Trump’s hot-and-cold support for them against China.
So, why does this matter? If the Strait stays closed, oil prices stay high. Trump’s strategy now seems to be ‘blame-shifting.’ If the mission fails or the economy dips, he can point the finger at ‘ungrateful’ allies. But for the allies, the risk is higher: they don’t see a clear endgame, and they’re not eager to bail out a partner who’s spent years telling them they’re on their own.”
Secondly, the numbers are eye-watering. If crude prices hold steady following the outbreak of the Iran war, US oil companies are on track for a $60 billion windfall this year. Investment bank Jefferies estimates American producers will generate an extra $5 billion in cash flow this month alone. While President Trump has been vocal on social media about the US being the world’s largest producer, the reality for “supermajors” like Exxon, Chevron, and Shell is far more complicated. Unlike the pure US shale players, these giants have massive assets in the Gulf. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed—blocking about 18 million barrels of oil a day—production is being shut in. Shell has already been forced to declare force majeure on LNG shipments from Qatar. Industry veterans are warning there are no real winners here; the international players would much rather have the stability of two weeks ago than a temporary price spike matched by blocked waterways.
Closer to home, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is warning that the war in Iran could hit Australians right in the hip pocket. That’s a significant jump away from the RBA’s target of two to three per cent. Chalmers told Sky News that based on realistic global scenarios, we could be looking at inflation hitting the mid-to-high fours. Despite the pressure, the Treasurer is brushing off recession talk, saying the upcoming budget will stay laser-focused on three things: inflation, productivity, and global uncertainty. Meanwhile, federal and state leaders have called emergency roundtables to figure out how to manage the flow-on effects as rising fuel costs filter down from distributors to everyday consumers.
The Reserve Bank just dropped a bombshell. On Tuesday, the RBA hiked the cash rate for the second straight month, taking it to 4.1%. This is a massive shift. It’s the first back-to-back hike we’ve seen since mid-2023, and it essentially wipes out most of the relief from last year’s rate cuts. But here’s the kicker: the board was split 5-to-4. That’s as close as a vote gets, and it shows the massive tension inside the RBA right now. Half the room is worried about pushing the economy too hard; the other half is spooked by stubborn inflation. When asked if she’s willing to tip us into a recession, Governor Michele Bullock was blunt. She said they’re trying to avoid it, but if inflation doesn’t budge, ‘we’re going to have to deal with that.’ The big ‘X-factor’ is the Middle East. With the Iran conflict escalating, the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 20% of the world’s oil—is effectively closed. That’s sending energy prices soaring, and the RBA is warning this could keep inflation above their 2–3% target for much longer than they hoped. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is already sounding the alarm that inflation could hit 4.5%, while some economists are eyeing a 5% peak. Why won’t it go down?
- GDP Growth: Sitting at 2.6%, which is faster than the economy’s ‘speed limit.’
- The Jobs Market: Unemployment is still at a historically low 4.1%.
- Expectations: Consumer inflation expectations have jumped to over 5%.
Basically, we’re still spending and the labor market is still too tight. Despite that close 5-4 vote, the market is now betting on a 50-50 chance of another hike in May. If that happens, the cash rate hits 4.35%, and last year’s easing cycle is completely erased. One interesting side effect: while the US Fed is looking at cutting rates, our RBA is still hiking. That divergence has made the Australian dollar the best-performing major currency of 2026. Great for imports and travelers, but a very tough pill to swallow for anyone with a mortgage.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the economic disruption from the Middle East makes wide-ranging tax and savings reforms in the budget more—not less—pressing. The government is weighing changes to capital gains, negative gearing, trusts, and electric vehicles for the May budget. However, there is clear tension between the Treasurer and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who has been less willing to take major risks on tax reform. With inflation now planned for the “mid to high fours,” Chalmers argues that these shocks are a reason to go further on productivity and savings, rather than slowing down.
The banking regulator, APRA, is pulling a significant lever to jumpstart Australia’s flat-lining productivity. In a major reset, Chairman John Lonsdale has flagged a plan to ease lending rules, making it easier for banks to finance property development, infrastructure, and mid-sized businesses. Essentially, APRA wants to lower the amount of capital banks have to hold against these loans. The goal? Get credit flowing into the business sector. Lonsdale even admitted that the regulator may have “over-calibrated” some of its rules in the past. This isn’t happening in a vacuum. Lonsdale pointed to the massive uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which has already spiked petrol prices and sent inflation warnings toward the 4 or 5% mark. It’s not a total free-for-all, though. While capital rules are easing, APRA is actually toughening liquidity rules. Lonsdale noted that the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US was a wake-up call. It proved that even a well-capitalized bank can fail if it can’t meet sudden demands for withdrawals. This is the most significant shake-up to bank capital rules since 2014. If it works, it reduces the cost of credit and helps tackle our chronic supply challenges in housing and infrastructure. But with global markets so volatile, APRA is walking a very fine line between encouraging investment and maintaining a “bulletproof” financial system.
Australia’s R&D landscape is facing a massive ‘vibe shift.’ A new strategic review, led by Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm, basically says our current system is stuck in a cycle of ‘Band-Aid solutions’ and risk aversion. The report—aptly titled Ambitious Australia—warns that if we don’t fix how we fund innovation, our standard of living is going to take a hit. The headline? A major overhaul of the R&D Tax Incentive. For the high-flyers, it’s good news. The panel wants to give ‘high-potential’ start-ups quarterly cash advances instead of making them wait for tax time. We’re also looking at raising the turnover threshold for tax offsets from $20 million to $50 million. But—and it’s a big ‘but’—the floor is moving. They’re proposing lifting the minimum spend for a claim from $20,000 all the way up to $150,000. The goal is to weed out low-growth SMEs and ‘fast-food’ style claims, focusing purely on businesses that are ready to scale. Beyond the tax breaks, Denholm is taking aim at the red tape stopping super funds from investing in venture capital, and even suggesting a $50,000 stipend for PhD students to keep our best brains in the lab. Industry heavyweights like the Business Council and the Tech Council are already cheering, saying this is the roadmap we need to keep companies like Atlassian and Cochlear headquartered here rather than heading overseas. Now, the ball is in Minister Tim Ayres’ court to see which of these 20 recommendations actually become law
Meanwhile, a major scandal is brewing in the banking sector. A report commissioned by CBA suggests mortgage fraud—driven by doctored documents, some even generated by AI—could be well beyond the initial $1 billion estimate. The big four are now working with AUSTRAC to determine how deep this rabbit hole goes, with concerns that these loans might be linked to organized crime and money laundering. Industry experts note that AI tools like ChatGPT are now producing PDF payslips instantly, making fraud significantly harder to detect.
A monster or the most intense person in any boardroom? In Australia’s property and media kingdoms, Antony Catalano was a force to be reckoned with. But that high-wire act is coming spectacularly unstuck. Charged with swinging an iron at a woman’s head and dragging her across his Melbourne apartment floor, Catalano took leave from his director interests on Monday as business figures swiftly distanced themselves from “The Cat.” Fresh allegations of violent treatment of his wife Stepfanie have separately surfaced, making for a lonely maverick since news of his bail broke on Saturday. Business associates spoke of a man who could electrify a boardroom and who had the chutzpah to take on corporate giants from Fairfax to private equity titans. But these allegations could be his undoing. The woman he is accused of assaulting was hospitalised. And the nature of the separately surfaced claims—including bashing a head against a taxi window and head-butting—have been met with an ominous silence from Melbourne’s tight-knit real estate community. Until now, Catalano had been riding high as executive chairman of Australian Community Media and View Media Group. He is now professionally on pause. He has also taken an immediate leave of absence from the board of Keybridge Capital. This isn’t his first brush with chaos. He made a sudden exit from Domain in 2018 amid talk of a sexist frat-boy culture and “white Christmas” parties. Back then, he revelled in the role of corporate agitator. But today, the commercial property industry is hellbent on reputational reform. As one senior Melbourne agent put it: “People just don’t want to deal with him.” Even his luxury property empire is under a cloud. There is talk of a boycott of his Wategos Beach holdings, and he just slashed the price of his St Kilda penthouse by six million dollars. On Saturday, Catalano declared he would check himself into rehab and take six months off, saying he was “deeply ashamed and humiliated.” The man who once saw the rivers of gold slipping through everyone else’s hands may finally be out of luck.
And that’s it for this week.
And next week, I’ll be talking to Professor David Ubilava about the impact of the Middle East conflict on fuel and supply chains, Australian agriculture and production and the flow on effect to food and grocery prices.
And I’ll be talking to Rabobank economist and China expert Teeuwe Mevissen on the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump which has been delayed because of the war with Iran. Donald Trump would have other things on his mind to make Beijing less of a priority for now. And it gives X Jinping time out to plan ahead.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
If you like Talking Business, please leave us a review with Apple Podcasts. Thank you in advance.
Remember, we are independent media and it’s all written in my voice. Nice and conversational.
Thank you in advance.
In the meantime, you can find me on Facebook, Twitter — or X as it’s now known — Instagram, LinkedIn and YouTube.
If you want to contact me, email me at leon@leongettler.com. I answer all emails.
Also in my spare time, I have a copywriting business. If anyone needs newsletters, blogs, articles or advertorial, email me.
Looking forward to the next episode of Talking Business next week.
