Well, it turns out a crisis is a powerful salesman. EVs made up almost 15% of new car sales in March, which is a record high, particularly in a month when overall new car sales were down.
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at https://www.businessacumen.biz/.
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 10 in our series for 2026 and today’s date is Friday April 10
First, I’ll be talking to I’ll be talking to Dr Vince Hurley, a lecturer in criminology at Macquarie University. We’ll talk about the shooting of cop killer Dezi Freeman who was finally shot by police at a remote property in northern Victoria after more than 800 days on the run, It was Australia’s biggest manhunt. It raises a key question: how do police deal with sovereign citizens
And I’ll be talking to EY regional chief economist Cherelle Murphy about the RBA’s decision to raise rates, the prospect of more to come and Australia’s inflation outlook in the wake of the Middle East war,
But first, let’s talk to Vince Hurley
So what’s happening in the news?
Our lead story today: A fundamental pillar of the global economy is cracking, and the tremors are being felt from Wall Street to the gas pump. For nearly a century, the U.S. Navy has been the “world’s policeman” on the high seas, ensuring that $35 trillion in global trade moves without friction. But that era might be ending. President Trump is threatening to walk away from securing the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that if other nations want their oil, they should—in his words—”grab it and cherish it” themselves.
The situation on the ground is already critical:
- Traffic Collapse: Daily ship counts in the Strait have plummeted from 135 to just a handful.
- Energy Shock: With 20% of the world’s oil at risk, the IEA is calling this the largest supply disruption in history.
Moving on to our second story: the energy markets are in a tailspin as the conflict with Iran escalates. On Sunday, eight heavy hitters from OPEC Plus—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kuwait—expressed serious alarm over the damage the war is doing to regional infrastructure. In a move that’s being called “largely symbolic,” the group actually raised production quotas by 206,000 barrels a day for next month. Why symbolic? Because it doesn’t really matter how much oil they pump if they can’t get it out. Iran’s virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has essentially choked off the world’s most critical shipping lane.
The numbers are pretty staggering:
- Production Drop: By mid-March, Persian Gulf countries had already pulled 10 million barrels a day offline—that’s 10% of the global supply.
- Price Hike: Since the conflict began on February 28th, international oil prices have rocketed up 50%, sitting around $109 a barrel as of last Thursday.
The rhetoric is also hitting a fever pitch. On Sunday, President Trump issued a blunt ultimatum on social media, threatening Iran with “further devastation” and warned that Tuesday would be “power plant and bridge day” if the Strait isn’t opened immediately. OPEC Plus warned that restoring this damaged infrastructure is going to be incredibly slow and expensive. For now, the IEA expects these production cuts to only get deeper as the fighting continues.
In some much-needed relief for the bowser, the Federal Government has secured “business as usual” guarantees from our major fuel suppliers in Asia. Assistant Minister Matt Thistlethwaite confirmed on Sky News that he’s received formal pledges from Japan, South Korea, and Singapore to keep the shipments coming. This is a big win because there were serious fears these nations might hoard their own supply as the conflict in Iran continues to choke the Strait of Hormuz. Here is why those handshakes matter:
- The Dependency: We might export a lot of energy, but we only refine 17% of our own fuel. We are almost entirely reliant on Asian refineries.
- The Big Players: South Korea alone provides about 25% of our imports, with Singapore and Malaysia providing another huge chunk.
- The Current Pinch: We’ve already seen prices spike and hundreds of local stations reporting shortages over the last week.
While the “guarantees” are in place, the logistics remain a headache. However, the government is betting that these diplomatic ties will keep Australia moving even as global supply chains remain under massive strain.
While the government says we’ll have enough fuel for the Easter break, experts are warning that Australia’s “she’ll be right” attitude toward energy is facing its toughest test yet. The Situation: Right now, our national reserves are sitting at 39 days for petrol and just 29 for diesel. Energy Minister Chris Bowen is playing the optimist, pointing to 53 ships currently hauling 3.7 billion litres of fuel our way from places like the US and Mexico. He’s basically telling us: “Keep your holiday plans, just don’t panic-buy.” But not everyone is buying the math. Matt Barrie from Loadshift points out a pretty glaring gap: we burn through 4.5 billion litres a month, meaning those ships on the horizon don’t even cover four weeks of demand. His big question? “What happens in May?” The Bigger Picture: The Australian Logistics Council is calling this the most serious global supply chain interruption to energy ever. They’re pushing for more than just full tanks; they want sovereign capability. That means:
- Utilising freight rail: It uses five times less diesel than trucks.
- Boosting Renewable Diesel: Leveraging our ag sector to create homegrown fuel.
- Electrification: Reducing the sheer volume of crude we need to import.
The Bottom Line: As the conflict in Iran continues to rattle global markets, the message is clear: being at the very end of the world’s trade routes is a vulnerable place to be. We might make it through Easter, but the push for energy independence is no longer a “future” problem—it’s a right-now problem.
Well, it turns out a crisis is a powerful salesman. March saw a massive shift in the Australian car market. Despite overall new vehicle sales dipping by about 2.6%, electric vehicles hit a record high, grabbing nearly 15% of the total market share. The driver here isn’t just a sudden love for the environment—it’s the hip pocket. Since the conflict in the Middle East escalated in late February, fuel prices have soared. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affecting 20% of global oil and Australia importing 90% of its liquid fuel, local drivers are feeling the squeeze at the pump. As a result, traditional favourites are taking a hit. Sales of the diesel Ford Ranger—usually the king of the road—fell 10%, while petrol vehicle sales plummeted over 20%. On the flip side, the Tesla Model Y surged over 63%, becoming the third most popular vehicle in the country. But the real story is the rise of Chinese manufacturers. BYD has officially cracked the top three best-selling car companies in Australia, trailing only Toyota and Kia. Their growth is staggering—sales of their Sealion 7 model jumped 243%, with wait times blowing out from weeks to months. Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries chief Tony Weber expects this trend to continue through April and May, though the long-term sustainability remains a question mark. Meanwhile, a political storm is brewing over how to tax these vehicles. As fuel excise revenue drops, the Federal and State governments are clashing. The Feds want an annual fee, while states like New South Wales are pushing for a per-kilometre charge. Electric Vehicle Council CEO Julie Delvecchio warns that now is the wrong time for new taxes. While we have half a million EVs on the road today, the government needs to hit 5 million by 2035 to meet emissions targets. Her message? A fuel crisis might be selling cars today, but we need stable policy to keep that momentum going in the long run.
Turning to the energy sector, and the Federal Government is dusting off the “big stick” to ensure we don’t run dry this winter. Resources Minister Madeleine King has issued a formal “notice of intent” to limit gas exports from the eastern states. It’s a first-of-its-kind move designed to pressure producers into prioritizing the domestic market. The ACCC is currently forecasting a potential shortfall of 12 petajoules between July and September—basically enough energy to power 76,000 homes. The friction comes after a previous supply deal expired in January, and negotiations for a new one hit a stalemate. Minister King was blunt, stating the government won’t let supply security “vanish into thin air” while global prices spike due to conflict in the Middle East. While the government insists international contracts are safe for now, the heat is specifically on Santos, which often buys uncontracted domestic gas to fill its export quotas. On the other side of the aisle, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor isn’t impressed, calling the move a “band-aid on a bullet wound” and arguing that the only real fix is more drilling. Either way, the clock is ticking—gas exporters have 30 days to pony up more supply before the government decides whether to officially pull the trigger on those export controls in mid-May.
Turning to the economy, and it looks like the Reserve Bank is caught between a rock and a hard place. The latest Australian Financial Review quarterly survey shows a growing consensus among economists that we haven’t seen the end of interest rate hikes this year. In fact, most of the 38 economists polled expect the central bank to lift rates to 4.35% as early as next month. Why the sudden shift? It’s a combination of domestic pressure and a global “perfect storm.” The escalating conflict in the Middle East has seen the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring. Brent crude has already surged past $US100 a barrel, and some analysts, like those at Goldman Sachs, warn it could even eclipse the 2008 record of $US147. As Harry Murphy Cruise from Oxford Economics put it, oil shocks are a central bank’s “worst nightmare”—they drive inflation up while simultaneously dragging economic growth down. But it isn’t just oil. Before the first strikes even occurred, energy bills were already a major pain point, with electricity costs jumping 32% in the year to January. Add to that the Albanese government’s push for an above-inflation minimum wage increase, and the RBA is facing massive pressure to keep a lid on core inflation, which is currently sitting well above their 2.5% target.
So, how high could we go?
- The Hawkish View: Westpac and Judo Bank are forecasting three more increases by June next year.
- The Middle Ground: Major players like CBA, AMP, and UBS have all revised their forecasts to flag more rises ahead.
- The Holdouts: A small group, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, believe the RBA will hold steady to avoid tipping the country into a recession.
While the risk of a recession is rising, most economists still see it as a one-in-four chance. However, if you’re waiting for rate cuts, don’t hold your breath. Forecasters from Barrenjoey and Westpac don’t expect to see the cash rate move down until at least 2028. It’s a delicate balancing act for the RBA.
The federal government is making a major push to rein in the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), positioning it as the “hard decision” centerpiece of next month’s budget. With the NDIS on track to hit a $100 billion annual price tag by the next decade, Labor is looking to slash its growth trajectory to protect the government’s bottom line. Why Now? Global instability—specifically the ongoing conflict in the Middle East—is putting immense pressure on the budget. To offset costs like the $2.5 billion fuel excise cut, Treasurer Jim Chalmers needs to find savings elsewhere. The NDIS is currently the second-fastest growing expense after interest on national debt. The Strategy: Growth vs. Integrity While growth has slowed from 22% to roughly 10%, the government’s goal is to drag that down to 5–6%. Here is how they plan to do it:
- Eligibility Overhauls: Structural changes to who qualifies for the scheme.
- The “Thriving Kids” Pivot: Moving children with mild-to-moderate needs to a separate program starting in 2028.
- Integrity Crackdown: Addressing a system where only 6% of providers are fully registered, leading to widespread fraud and “dodgy” pricing.
Surprisingly, the peak body for disability services, led by Michael Perusco, is telling providers to “embrace the moment.” The sector argues the scheme has enough money but is crippled by “weak guardrails” and lack of oversight. The Bottom Line Health Minister Mark Butler is warning that without these changes, the NDIS risks losing its “social licence.” Expect the May budget to be the turning point for a leaner, more regulated version of the scheme.
Following that news on the NDIS crackdown, we’re seeing a major push from the big end of town to find the next big budget saver. Westpac’s new CEO, Anthony Miller, is calling on the Federal Government to stop looking at Artificial Intelligence as a threat and start seeing it as a massive “productivity unlock.” With the May budget fast approaching, Miller is urging Treasurer Jim Chalmers to “chase the upside” of AI. He argues that if the government leans into the technology, they could significantly boost public services without actually increasing spending. In his view, that’s a much more realistic way to grow the economy and fight inflation than trying to push complex tax reforms through a difficult Senate. But—and it’s a big “but”—there is a massive gap between the boardroom and the lounge room on this one. While Miller is talking about efficiency, a new RedBridge poll shows that public trust in AI is effectively “collapsing.” Here’s the pulse of the nation right now:
- Job Security: 73% of voters believe AI will be bad for job security.
- The Youth Vote: It’s not just older workers worried about being replaced; 75% of Gen Z and 77% of Gen X are sounding the alarm.
- The “Friend” Factor: Pollsters say that the more Australians learn about AI, the more they’ve decided it is “not their friend.”
It leaves the Treasurer in a tricky spot. He’s flagged a “big productivity package” for the budget, but as Westpac pushes for a high-tech boom, the public is increasingly wary that “efficiency” is just a corporate code word for “redundancy.”
S&P Global Ratings is sounding the alarm: if Australian governments ramp up spending to cushion the latest oil shock, they could end up hurting their own credit ratings — and pushing inflation even higher. The agency says the conflict in the Middle East has driven up global oil prices, and that’s triggered political pressure here at home. Voters have become used to government support since the pandemic, and now there’s a push for more cost‑of‑living relief. Canberra has already stepped in — halving the fuel excise, which cost more than $2.5 billion in lost revenue, plus a billion dollars in interest‑free loans for small businesses hit by fuel shortages. But S&P’s Anthony Walker says the states don’t have the same room to move. Their budgets are already stretched, and more spending could tip them into ratings trouble. In his words, states “failed to rebuild their buffers” after the pandemic. Economists are warning about the risk of stagflation — that nasty mix of high inflation and low growth — and Walker agrees the risk is “elevated.” His message is simple: resist the temptation to spend your way out of this. The Prime Minister says the conflict will shape the May budget, but insists the government’s reform ambitions remain intact. Treasurer Jim Chalmers is talking up tax reform, productivity, and savings — though some in Labor worry they may need to pivot to short‑term support if the conflict drags on. EY’s Cherelle Murphy warns that governments who don’t rebuild buffers in good times leave themselves exposed in bad ones. That means higher debt, higher interest costs, and less flexibility when shocks hit. Before the conflict, the federal budget wasn’t expected to return to surplus for a decade. Combined federal and state budgets point to two decades of deficits. S&P is watching Queensland and New South Wales closely. Both have AA+ ratings with negative outlooks, and either could face a downgrade if their budget positions weaken. Victoria and Tasmania, meanwhile, have leaned into more freebies — like free public transport — ahead of elections, which S&P suggests is politically motivated. Victoria says it’s on track for a surplus, but economists point out that’s only on the operating side. Once you factor in capital spending, the state is staring at tens of billions in cash deficits and rising debt. And all of this matters because state spending feeds directly into demand — which feeds inflation — which makes the Reserve Bank’s job even harder. Inflation was already at 3.7% before the conflict, and some economists think it could hit the mid‑6s by June. The RBA has already lifted rates twice this year, and S&P expects at least one more hike by June.
And that’s it for this week.
And next week, I’ll be talking to Mangala Martinus, Managing Director of Payments Consulting Network. He’ll provide local insights into the evolving flexible payment options landscape, what this means for food delivery platforms, restaurants, and consumer spending habits, and how this might look in Australia.
And I’ll be talking to Indeed economist Callam Pickering about the latest jobs figures and what they tell us about the economy and interest rates.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
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