𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 ‘𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧’, 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐫 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲, 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐧.
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at https://www.businessacumen.biz/.
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 9 for 2026 and today’s date is Friday, April 3. Yes Good Friday.
First, I’ll be speaking to people2people’s managing director Catherine Kennedy about how entry-level jobs could be the first quiet casualty of workplace AI adoption, with 45% of employers expecting to hire fewer junior roles within three to five years.
And I’ll be talking to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver about the RBA’s decision to hike rates. And the likelihood of more to come.
But first, let’s talk to Catherine Kennedy.
So what’s happening in the news?
Our top story today is that Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is giving investors a “pro-tip” on how to handle the market volatility surrounding Donald Trump and the Middle East—and his advice is to do the exact opposite of what the headlines suggest. a recent post on X, Ghalibaf called Washington’s pre-market cues a “reverse indicator.” His logic? “If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.” Essentially, he’s arguing that early signals of de-escalation are often just “setups for profit-taking” by big players before the reality of the conflict sets back in. We saw a perfect example of this late last week. Around March 22nd, Trump suggested talks were “going very well,” causing stocks to jump and oil prices to slide. But a trader following Ghalibaf’s logic would have shorted that stock rally and bought the oil dip. Why? Because days later, the narrative flipped. Trump returned to hardline threats, Israeli strikes hit Tehran, and the market did a complete 180. Stocks sold off and oil surged. While this sounds like a conspiracy theory, some traders say the data actually backs him up. We’ve seen massive moves—like $580 million in oil futures and $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures—trading just minutes before major peace signals were even made public. Right now, the “good news” has evaporated. Indian markets crashed 1.5% on Monday as fears of a wider war intensified. Reports now suggest the U.S. is preparing for weeks of ground operations, with the USS Tripoli delivering the largest military buildup in the region in two decades. Ghalibaf’s response? He warned that Iranian forces are “waiting” and will “rain fire” on any troops. For the average investor, the lesson is simple: the first move on a headline is rarely the real move. In this high-stakes game of geopolitical poker, the smartest play might be questioning the reaction rather than following the herd.
The conflict in Iran is creating immediate financial and legal exposure for Australian businesses and directors. Experts warn that standard operating assumptions have been upended. MinterEllison reports that cashflow forecasts from even a few weeks ago are now “ancient history.” Companies without significant liquidity buffers are seeking urgent solutions as supply chain “choke points” begin to hit. Directors face heightened risks regarding insolvent trading, personal liability for company tax, and breaches of directors’ duties. Many firms are already relying on “Safe Harbour” legal protections to navigate liquidity shortages while re-negotiating with lenders and suppliers. The surge in petrol prices is directly impacting “Return-to-Office” (RTO) mandates: Global policies requiring staff to be in the workplace are being paused due to the “fuel crunch.” Employment experts at Baker McKenzie suggest a practical approach; while employers can push back if public transport is accessible, rising commute costs are becoming a valid reason for remote work requests Business chambers are calling for a four-point government plan, including fuel conservation measures and financial support to prevent company collapses.
The Albanese government has just pulled the trigger on a massive fuel assistance package, but it’s sparking a major debate among the nation’s top economists. To insulate Australians from the Middle East conflict—which has pushed petrol north of $2.50 a litre—the Prime Minister is halving the fuel excise to 26.3¢ for the next three months. He’s also handed Finance Minister Katy Gallagher an extra $2 billion in emergency powers to shore up supply chains. The PM says this is about keeping the economy moving and helping families enjoy their Easter break. But the timing is tricky. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been billing the upcoming May 12 Budget as a “reform” moment to tackle $1 trillion in debt. Now, experts like Chris Richardson are warning that this relief is another “drag on the budget” that could actually keep inflation higher for longer by pumping more money into the economy.
The data coming in from the big banks is sobering:
- Recession Risks: HSBC’s Paul Bloxham warns the economy could actually shrink in the June quarter due to the double-hit of high fuel prices and rising interest rates.
- Rate Hike Forecasts: Westpac’s Luci Ellis has revised her outlook, now expecting the cash rate to peak at 4.85% this year, with a string of hikes in May, June, and August.
- Spending “Boom”: UBS notes that while the budget deficit was lower than expected in February, government spending is still growing at 8%—a “material fiscal easing” that works directly against the RBA’s goal of cooling the economy.
The biggest question mark? Funding. When pressed, the Treasurer couldn’t specify exactly where the $4.6 billion for these emergency measures is coming from. While the government argues they are “ahead of the curve” by underwriting fuel shipments, critics like Jonathan Kearns suggest that if the government wanted to be fiscally responsible, this relief should have been means-tested rather than a blanket cut. The government is walking a tightrope. They want to provide cost-of-living relief to Australians under pressure, but by doing so, they might be forcing the RBA to keep interest rates higher for longer to compensate for the extra stimulus. It sets the stage for a very tense Federal Budget in May.
Alright, let’s talk about the big economic cloud hanging over Canberra. Former Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson is sounding the alarm, warning that Australia is staring down the barrel of stagflation. That’s the nasty combo of soaring costs and stalling growth—largely fueled by the global fallout from the conflict in the Middle East. Parkinson’s message to Treasurer Jim Chalmers? Don’t blink. He’s urging the government not to let global instability kill off urgent reforms to our tax and migration systems. Basically, we need to ‘strike while the iron is hot’ to boost productivity, or we risk getting trapped in a weak economy with high prices. Now, Chalmers says the May budget will still be ambitious. He’s looking at tax changes to fix intergenerational inequality, even though the war has spiked fuel prices at the worst possible time. But here’s the catch: the Treasurer is leaving the door open to spending more than he saves. Economists are nervous about that. They’re worried that more government spending will just fight against the Reserve Bank’s efforts to cool inflation. Deloitte’s David Rumbens put it bluntly: if the government doesn’t help rein in spending, the full burden of fighting inflation stays on the backs of renters and mortgage holders—mostly younger Australians—while older generations with interest income stay shielded. The Silver Lining? A massive $60 billion revenue windfall. Thanks to high prices for coal, gas, and gold, plus more people being pushed into higher tax brackets, the government’s coffers are flush. The big debate now is whether Chalmers should use that cash to fund short-term relief, like the recent $2.6 billion fuel assistance package, or if he should follow expert advice and bank it to shore up the budget for the long haul. It’s a high-stakes balancing act: providing immediate cost-of-living relief without pouring more fuel on the inflationary fire.”
In the world of big industry, ‘collaboration’ is usually a polite word for a legal headache. But right now, the global energy crunch—fueled by conflict in the Middle East—is forcing a massive shift in how Australia’s biggest players operate. The ACCC is currently weighing up a high-stakes request: giving our mining giants a ‘get out of jail free’ card from competition laws so they can team up on fuel security. The ACCC has already given a preliminary ‘green light’ to fuel suppliers like Ampol and Viva Energy to coordinate supplies. Now, the Minerals Council is saying, ‘Wait a minute, we’re the ones burning the fuel—we need to be at the table too.’ We’re talking about massive scale here. Between BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue, they burn nearly 2 billion litres of diesel a year just in the Pilbara. If they can’t get fuel, the trucks stop, the fly-in-fly-out planes stay grounded, and the ships don’t move. This isn’t the first time they’ve done this. Back in 2020, the watchdog let miners share inventories and trucking schedules to keep the supply chain from snapping. They want to dust off that manual to prevent the ‘strain’ we’re already seeing—some smaller miners are already cutting back on non-essential work just to save fuel. The numbers are getting eye-watering. LNG prices in Asia have more than doubled since January. Shipping costs for iron ore and coal have effectively doubled in just two months. While the immediate goal is surviving the next few months, industry leaders like Tania Constable are pushing for a longer-term fix: liberating more domestic gas from places like the Dorado field in WA and loosening restrictions in NSW and Victoria. If the ACCC signs off next month, we’re going to see a level of corporate cooperation we haven’t seen since the height of COVID. It’s a gamble to protect jobs and tax revenue, but it shows just how precarious our fuel security has become. Skyrocketing fuel prices and the prospect of more interest rate rises have caused Australian consumer confidence to plunge to a record low.
Buckle up, because the news for mortgage holders just went from bad to worse. Westpac has dropped a bombshell, predicting that interest rates are headed for their highest level since the Global Financial Crisis. According to their economists, we’re looking at three more hikes this year—May, June, and August. If that happens, the cash rate hits 4.85%. What does that mean for your wallet? If you’ve got an average new mortgage of $736,000, these hikes could add about $366 a month to your repayments. By August, your monthly bill could jump from roughly $4,550 to nearly $5,000. Westpac’s Chief Economist, Luci Ellis, says this energy-driven inflation is so ‘dire’ that the Reserve Bank has no choice but to tap the brakes harder. The fallout? Slower growth, less consumer spending, and a softening job market. And the ‘S-Word’ returns: Stagflation This is where it gets really technical and a bit scary. Both Westpac and Deloitte are warning about stagflation—that rare economic nightmare where we have high inflation and rising unemployment at the same time.
- Unemployment: Predicted to climb from 4.3% toward 5% (levels we haven’t seen since the 2021 lockdowns).
- Inflation: Expected to peak around 5.4% by June, despite the government’s recent move to halve the fuel excise.
Deloitte’s David Rumbens points out that the RBA is currently missing both of its targets: keeping people employed and keeping prices stable. The Long Road to Relief If you’re hoping for a rate cut anytime soon, you might want to look away. Westpac doesn’t see any relief for borrowers until 2028. They’ve penciled in four cuts for that year, which would finally bring the rate back down toward 3.85%. It’s a tough outlook—essentially a ‘one bitten, twice shy’ approach from the RBA as they try to kill off this inflation surge once and for all.
The Australian Taxation Office has signaled a “practical and proportionate” approach to debt collection, mirroring COVID-era empathy. This is critical as small businesses currently hold nearly two-thirds of the $50 billion in unpaid tax debt. CreditorWatch identifies agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, and road transport as the sectors under the most acute pressure. The Reserve Bank notes that while insolvencies stabilized in 2025, the energy price shock poses a sustained risk to energy-intensive industries.
Alright, let’s talk about a massive shake-up for Australia’s telco giant. Telstra is being forced to literally wipe one million square kilometres off its coverage maps—that’s an area larger than New South Wales—following a new crackdown by the Albanese government. The Dispute is Signal Strength For years, Telstra, Optus, and TPG (which owns Vodafone) have been fighting over what actually constitutes ‘coverage.’ It all comes down to a technical measurement called decibel-milliwatts (dBm).
- The Rival View: Optus and TPG argued that once a signal hits −115 dBm, your phone is basically a paperweight—calls drop and texts fail.
- The Telstra View: Telstra claimed their tech is superior, insisting they provide reliable service all the way down to −122 dBm.
Well, the regulator, ACMA, just ended the argument. They’ve sided with the rivals. From June 30, anything weaker than −115 dBm must be officially labeled as ‘no coverage. Why This Matters for the Bottom Line This isn’t just about maps; it’s about money. Telstra has a market cap of over $60 billion, and they charge a premium precisely because they claim to cover 99.7% of the population. Mobile plans accounted for 42% of Telstra’s $23 billion revenue in FY25. By shrinking their ‘marketable’ footprint, the government is essentially stripping away part of Telstra’s biggest competitive advantage.” Communications Minister Anika Wells says this is about ‘putting a stop to the mess’ of incomparable maps. Moving forward, every telco has to use the same four markers:
- Good: Below −95 dBm
- Moderate: −95 to −105 dBm
- Basic: Ends at −115 dBm
- No Coverage: Anything beyond that.
Telcos will have to update these maps every three months or face heavy fines. Even the smaller players—like Amaysim, AldiMobile, and Boost—will now have access to this standardized data. Telstra isn’t taking this lying down. They’ve warned the government that if they can’t market their full footprint, they might invest less in regional networks. They even sent drivers 60,000 kilometres across the outback to prove their signal works where the government says it doesn’t. But for now, the rule stands. It’s a win for transparency, but a major marketing headache for the nation’s biggest telco.”
Rio Tinto has launched a significant legal challenge in the US Court of International Trade: Following a Supreme Court ruling against the “Liberation Day” tariffs, Rio is seeking a refund for millions in extra duties paid over the past year. This lawsuit occurs while Rio seeks US political support for the Resolution Copper project in Arizona. Rio is also reviewing its membership in the National Mining Association (NMA) due to “significant departures” on climate and energy policy.
Australia’s transition to green energy is facing a construction standstill: None of the 15 wind farms supported by the federal Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) have begun construction. Rising costs and transmission bottlenecks have made Australia a “high-risk, low-return” environment for global capital. Without a “re-opening” of auctions or higher pricing tiers, the target of 82% renewable energy by 2030 is unlikely to be met.
And that’s it for this week.
And next week, I’ll be talking to Dr Vince Hurley, a lecturer in criminology at Macquarie University. We’ll talk about the shooting of cop killer Dezi Freeman who was finally shot by police at a remote property in northern Victoria after more than 800 days on the run, It was Australia’s biggest manhunt and raises many questions.
And I’ll be talking to EY regional chief economist Cherelle Murphy about the RBA’s decision to raise rates and Australia’s inflation outlook.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
If you like Talking Business, please leave us a review with Apple Podcasts. Thank you in advance.
Remember, we are independent media and it’s all written in my voice. Nice and conversational.
Talking Business has a global audience of close to 32,500 and we’re looking to get to 50,000. Please share this podcast with your family, friends and colleagues.
Thank you in advance.
In the meantime, you can find me on Facebook, Twitter — or X as it’s now known — Instagram, LinkedIn and YouTube. Any comments and views from all of you to help Talking Business will be gladly received.
If you want to contact me, email me at leon@leongettler.com. I answer all emails.
Also in my spare time, I have a copywriting business. If anyone needs newsletters, blogs, articles or advertorial, email me.
I want to wish everyone a great Easter. Enjoy it with the family. May your days be filled with love and chocolate.
Looking forward to the next episode of Talking Business next week.
