The war in Iran is causing gas and oil price explosions as well as concerns about inflation
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at https://www.businessacumen.biz/.
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 5 for 2026 and today’s date is Friday, March 6. First, I’ll be speaking I’ll be talking to the Co-CEO of Hub Australia, Rebekah Murphy about the challenges for women leaders. This will coincide with International Women’s Day.
And I’ll be talking to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver about the profit reporting season.
But first, let’s talk to Rebekah Murphy
So what’s happening in the news?
If you thought the global economy was finally finding its footing, the Middle East just threw a massive wrench in the gears. We’re seeing a significant escalation with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian targets, met quickly by Iranian missile barrages. It’s no longer just “tension”—it’s a direct threat to the world’s energy arteries. Qatar has already urged shipowners to stop moving LNG, and the U.S. Navy is telling tankers they can’t guarantee safety in the Persian Gulf. We’ve already seen dozens of ships divert or drop anchor in safe harbors. This is the big one. Almost 20% of the world’s daily oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already issued radio warnings for ships to stay out. If that strait closes for a prolonged period, analysts call it the “doomsday scenario.” Brent crude closed Friday around $72, but experts say $80 is a baseline for limited strikes. If this turns into a long-term supply disruption, we could see a repeat of the 2022 spike toward $140. This isn’t just about petrol prices. High oil costs bleed into manufacturing and shipping. Capital Economics warns that $100 oil could add 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation, which might force central banks—including the Fed—to stop cutting interest rates and start hiking them again. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some “bypass” pipelines, and OPEC+ just agreed to hike production in April to stabilize things. But as one analyst put it: more oil doesn’t help if the ships physically can’t get out of the Gulf.
And while the geopolitical situation in Iran is driving those global oil prices, the ripple effects are landing right here on our doorstep. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has just issued a fresh warning: this oil shock could be the catalyst that keeps our local inflation ‘sticky’ for longer. She’s being cautious, noting that while a global slowdown could eventually lower prices, the immediate risk of a supply shock is front and centre. Remember, the RBA already bumped the cash rate to 3.85% last month, and Bullock says the data since then justifies that move. Underlying inflation is still sitting at 3.4%, and the bank is incredibly ‘alert’ to the risk of inflation expectations spinning out of control.
We are seeing a major sense of déjà vu in the energy markets this week. Following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, experts are warning of a repeat of the 2022 energy shock that sent power bills up by 40%. The big trigger was Monday’s drone attack on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex—the world’s third-largest LNG exporter—which forced them to halt production. The market reaction was instant: wholesale gas prices jumped 50% in Europe and nearly 40% in Asia. Because our domestic prices in Australia are so closely tied to the international market, there’s a real fear this will filter through to our own electricity bills and manufacturing costs soon. The government says their current price caps are shielding us for now, but analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains choked off, we are extremely exposed to these global spikes.
On the fuel front, Energy Minister Chris Bowen is telling Australians there is “no need to panic” or rush to the service stations. He’s pointing to our current reserves, which are at a ten-year high—we’ve got about 36 days of petrol and 34 days of diesel on hand. However, the real concern isn’t just the supply; it’s the cost. Oil prices have risen for three straight days as the conflict spreads to Lebanon and the Gulf. While we have enough stock to keep us going for a month, the agricultural and mining sectors are incredibly sensitive to diesel prices. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has already asked the ACCC to watch for price gouging, but the big question remains: if this conflict drags on, how much of that international price hike will Australians be forced to pay at the pump?
Turning to the banking sector, a massive fraud scandal is rocking Australia’s “Big Four,” and it looks like AI is the new tool of choice for white-collar crime. What started as a $150 million headache for NAB has exploded. Police now believe a single criminal network—dubbed the “Penthouse Syndicate”—has hit Westpac, ANZ, NAB, and CBA. CBA alone is looking at roughly $1 billion in suspicious loans. While the bank isn’t technically “out of pocket” yet (because the mortgages are being paid), the underlying applications were doctored, often using sophisticated AI to fake documentation. Here’s the twist: the criminals aren’t necessarily trying to skip out on the debt. They’re actually repaying the loans with dirty money to make it look like legitimate income. It’s a systemic real estate money-laundering scheme. The alleged ringleader, Andrew Hu, is a former banker from both NAB and CBA. He was sacked in 2022, but the “red flags” he left behind—like massive overseas deposits for home loans—are only now being fully mapped out. This is a wake-up call for the industry. New laws kicking in July 1st will finally force real estate agents, lawyers, and accountants to follow the same anti-money laundering rules as the banks.
Remember that old children’s book, Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day? Well, that is exactly how frustrated shareholders are describing the recent merger between Southern Cross Media and Seven West Media. Southern Cross Chairman Heith Mackay-Cruise—a former Pepsi salesman turned media exec—pushed for this $420 million “media empire” despite being told repeatedly it was a disaster waiting to happen. He wanted “scale” to fight off tech giants like Google and Netflix. The strategy? Cross-selling radio ads with Seven’s free-to-air TV and print arms. The problem is, we’ve seen this movie before, and it usually ends in tears: Big banks tried this “cross-selling” with insurance 20 years ago; it failed. Nine Entertainment is doing it now, and there is almost no evidence it’s actually boosting their TV business. Free-to-air TV revenues are in freefall—down 10% this year as viewers flee to YouTube and Netflix. Because of a massive loophole in ASX rules, the Southern Cross board didn’t even need its own shareholders’ permission to proceed. The real winner? Billionaire Kerry Stokes. His family’s company, SGH Limited, stands to net hundreds of millions in tax credits—a win far bigger than the actual stake they hold in the media company. The deal only officially kicked off in January, but it is already hitting the skids. Just this past week, we saw the fallout: CEO Jeff Howard—who came over from Seven—was fired after only seven weeks on the job. Mackay-Cruise basically said he wasn’t moving fast enough to “realize the benefits” of the merger. They just posted a $7.4 million net loss. Investors hated it. Southern Cross stock tanked 10% on Tuesday, trading near 61 cents. Since this merger was announced late last year, over $100 million in value has simply evaporated. Australian media history is a graveyard of “scale” deals that destroyed value—think Alan Bond, Frank Lowy, or the CVC/Nine disaster. Mackay-Cruise and his board seem convinced they can succeed where everyone else failed. But with the stock sliding and a CEO already out the door, those early warnings are looking less like “negativity” and more like a roadmap of what went wrong.
The Reserve Bank is firing back at critics who say they should’ve hiked interest rates harder and faster after the pandemic. Chief Economist Sarah Hunter just dropped some fascinatng internal modelling showing that if the RBA had matched the aggressive rates we saw in places like New Zealand or the UK, inflation would have hit the 2.5% target last year. But—and it’s a big ‘but’—that move would’ve come at a massive human cost. We’re talking about an extra 190,000 people out of work by next year, and mortgage holders paying roughly $500 more a month on a $600,000 loan. The RBA is essentially saying: ‘We chose the middle path.’ They’re prioritizing their dual mandate of stable prices and high employment. However, not everyone is buying it. Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson is calling for a rethink of that mandate, arguing the bank needs to focus strictly on inflation. With markets eyeing a potential hike before the May budget—unless geopolitical tensions in Iran keep the hand on the brake—the RBA is walking a very thin tightrope right now.”
New data from the Workplace Gender Equality Agency is out, and it’s a classic case of ‘good news, bad news.‘ The good news? Average pay grew by 3.6% last year, and we’re seeing more women moving into management roles, which is slowly narrowing the gap. The bad news? The highest-paying industries—like construction and finance—still have the worst ‘top-tier’ disparity. In construction, only 1 in 10 workers in the highest-earning bracket are women. And across the board, men are nearly twice as likely to be in that top 25% of earners. WGEA chief Mary Wooldridge points out an interesting trend, though. She says some companies might actually see their pay gap worsen before it gets better. Why? Because they’re finally hiring more women into junior ‘pipeline’ roles—like pilots or engineers—with the goal of promoting them to high-paying senior spots later. It’s a long game, but with half of Aussie employers still paying men 30% more in bonuses and overtime, ‘the work’ is clearly far from over.”
It was only five months ago that Block CEO Jack Dorsey flew 8,000 staff to California for a three-day, $68 million rager with Jay-Z and T-Pain. But the party is officially over for about half of Afterpay’s Australian workforce. In a 600-word memo written entirely in lowercase, Dorsey announced he’s slashing 4,000 jobs globally. The reason? He’s blaming ‘AI efficiencies’ and the need for ‘flatter teams.’ But insiders and some investors are calling foul, using a new term: ‘AI-washing.’ The theory is that Block simply over-hired during the pandemic—exploding from 4,000 to 12,000 staff—and is now using the ‘AI revolution’ as a convenient cover for massive cost-cutting. While legal, design, and marketing teams in Australia have been gutted, the sales teams remain untouched. It’s a brutal reminder of the current tech landscape: if you aren’t building the AI or selling the product, your seat might not be safe—no matter how good the office party was.”
Next time you’re at the bar tap-and-paying for a shout, or booking that annual holiday, ask yourself: Are you actually equal to the person next to you? To paraphrase George Orwell—in Australia’s digital payments system, all customers are equal, but some are definitely more equal than others. On one side, you’ve got people using their own money—cash or debit. On the other, you’ve got the credit card users. Now, the credit crowd gets the perks: frequent flyer points, lounge passes, and free travel insurance. But who’s footing the bill? You guessed it. The people using their own money aren’t just missing out on the perks; they’re often subsidizing them. Most small businesses—your local pub or cafe—charge a “blended” surcharge. It’s usually around 1.6%, whether you use debit or credit. But here’s the kicker: processing a credit transaction can cost a bank three to five times more than a debit one. It’s the “Shield” Policy In a recent federal inquiry, the big banks actually admitted they “shield” small businesses from this complexity. It’s essentially a “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that keeps fees high. The RBA claims that 80% of transactions are “least-cost routed,” but if you’re a consumer paying that flat 1.6% rate, you aren’t seeing a cent of those savings. If a transaction goes through the cheaper EFTPOS route, it might only cost the provider 0.5%. They just pocket the difference. The RBA is meeting this week to decide the future of surcharging. They have two real choices:
- Ban debit card surcharges only (which is what the PM wants).
- Ban both debit and credit surcharges.
If we want fairness, the answer is clear: Ban debit surcharges, but keep them for credit. If someone wants the fancy points and the airline lounges, they should pay the 2.5% fee themselves, not force the person paying with their own savings to subsidize it.
The Bottom Line
Small businesses are calling for Mandatory Least-Cost Routing. This could slash costs by up to 70%. The payment providers say we should just “trust competition” to bring prices down. But they haven’t lowered them yet, so why would they start now? As my dad used to say: “Never take advice from someone who has their hand in your pocket.” It’s time to stop the doomsday talk from the banks and give Australian consumers a fair, transparent deal.
And that’s it for this week.
And next week, I’ll be talking to Daniel Lazarus, the co-founder of solar management and maintenance company, Industrias. We’ll talk about his mission to wake the industry up to the costs and fire and degradation risks that come with poor or a lack of maintenance.
And I’ll be talking to independent economist Saul Eslake about the outlook for the Australian economy and the challenges for the government in the forthcoming budget.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
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Looking forward to the next episode of Talking Business next week.
