It looks like Donald Trump’s tariff war has backfired. Australian exports to the US have jumped 20% over the past year.
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple podcast store or wherever you go to get your podcasts. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at https://www.businessacumen.biz/
I am Leon Gettler. My job is review and monitor the week’s news in business finance and economics. I bring it all to you every week.
For the most exclusive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world, subscribe to Talking Business from my website leongettler.com or whatever your favourite podcast platform is.
This is episode number 40 series for 2025 and today’s date is Friday November 14.
First, I’ll be talking to Mark Woodland, co-founder and CEO of health start-up Kismet, which creates an ecosystem to make health care easier for families. We’ll talk about Kisemt addresses issues about NDIS and health insurance.
And I’ll be talking to Rabobank economist Teeuwe Mevissen about what this Trump-Xi Jinping deal really means. It’s just a truce for 12 months.
But first, let’s talk to Mark Woodland.
So what’s happening in the news?
Well, it looks like the longest government shutdown in U.S. history might finally be coming to an end. On Monday night, the Senate voted to pass a bill that funds most federal agencies through January—no small relief for the hundreds of thousands of federal workers who’ve gone more than a month without paychecks. But, as is often the case in Washington, the path to reopening the government comes with a few big political trade-offs. Let’s unpack what happened. The Senate approved the short-term funding bill by a 60–40 vote, with eight Democrats crossing the aisle to join Republicans. The bill keeps funding at current levels—essentially pressing “pause” until January—and now heads back to the House of Representatives where Speaker Mike Johnson says he wants lawmakers back in Washington “as quickly as possible” for a final vote. President Donald Trump has already given the green light, saying, “We’ll be opening up our country very quickly.” If that happens, people and businesses around the US can finally breathe a sigh of relief. The deal even reverses the firings of thousands of employees ordered during the shutdown and blocks any new ones—at least for now. The ripple effects go beyond paychecks. Airports will get back to full staffing (just in time for Thanksgiving travel), and programs like SNAP, which provides food aid to millions, will start flowing again after weeks of delay. So, what’s the catch? The sticking point all along has been the Affordable Care Act —a pandemic-era boost that helps millions of Americans afford health insurance. Those credits are set to expire at the end of the year, and Democrats had been holding out for an extension as part of any deal. But after 40+ days of stalemate, a group of moderate Democrats decided to take what they could get: reopen the government now, and promise to vote on the ACA subsidies later in December. In other words—no guarantees. Just a promise. Progressives aren’t happy. They’re calling it a cave, not a compromise. Even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who voted against the bill, warned that Democrats were giving up their leverage. “This health care crisis is so severe, so urgent,” he said, “that I cannot in good faith support this continuing resolution.” Meanwhile, the eight Democrats who broke ranks—names like Jeanne Shaheen, Tim Kaine, John Fetterman, and Catherine Cortez Masto—say it was the only realistic way to reopen the government and start the next round of talks. Still, those talks won’t be easy. The House has no obligation to take up an ACA vote in December, and several Republicans are already floating alternative ideas. Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, for instance, wants to redirect ACA subsidies straight to individuals rather than insurance companies—basically, put the money into people’s pockets and let them choose how to spend it. The White House seems at least open to exploring that idea. Whether that’s a creative solution or a Trojan horse for dismantling Obamacare depends on where you sit. Some Democrats worry it could destabilize the ACA marketplaces by driving healthy people out. And then there’s the politics inside the Democratic Party itself. After Monday’s vote, the frustration was loud and public. Governor Gavin Newsom accused Democrats of “rolling over,” while Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Ro Khanna even called on Schumer to step down as party leader. Trump, of course, couldn’t resist twisting the knife, saying on Fox News that “Schumer thought he could break the Republicans, and the Republicans broke him.” It’s a messy moment for Democrats—split between pragmatists who want to keep the government running and progressives who think that every time they compromise, Trump gets stronger. For now, though, the immediate crisis looks like it’s about to end. Federal workers can go back to work, planes will fly on time again, and Washington can claim a temporary win for basic functionality. But the deeper question remains: when that mid-December vote comes around, will Democrats have the unity—or the leverage—to deliver on health care?
It It looks like Donald Trump’s tariff war has backfired — at least when it comes to Australia. Australian exports to the US have jumped 20% over the past year, hitting a record $6.9 billion in the three months to September. That’s up from $5.8 billion a year earlier, according to new DFAT figures. The surge comes despite Trump’s 10% “liberation day” tariffs, which were supposed to make US companies buy locally. But instead, American firms are still importing key Australian products — everything from aircraft parts for Boeing to blood plasma from CSL. Economists say the US just doesn’t have easy substitutes for many Aussie goods, and the tariffs on Australian products are relatively low compared with those on other countries. Beef exports, for example, are up 26% to $1.6 billion — even though Trump singled them out as unfair back in April. Overall, it seems fears that Trump’s trade war would hurt Australian exporters were overblown. If anything, the tariffs have given local producers a competitive edge.
Last week on Talking Business, we heard from the Reserve Bank Governor about the outlook for interest rates — and the cautious stance the RBA is taking as inflation slowly comes under control. This week, we hear from the Bank’s Deputy Governor, Andrew Hauser, who’s reinforced that message — and added some fresh insight into how close the Australian economy may be to its limits. The Reserve Bank is pushing back against the idea of another rate cut — warning that there may be little room left for monetary policy to go any lower. Speaking in Sydney, the Deputy Governor said that while it’s possible to imagine scenarios where rates fall again, the data simply doesn’t suggest that’s where the economy is heading. For rates to drop, he said, you’d have to believe there’s more spare capacity in the economy than current figures show — or that demand growth will weaken significantly. But Hauser made it clear: right now, that doesn’t look likely. At the heart of the RBA’s caution is a familiar problem — inflation. The Bank worries that the economy may already be operating close to, or even above, full capacity. That means any surge in demand risks pushing prices higher. And that could trap Australia in a period of slow growth — an economy stuck in the “slow lane,” as Hauser put it. Still, there’s a silver lining. The RBA believes there’s time for the economy to break free — if productivity can improve and new investment flows in. Hauser drew a vivid picture for his Sydney audience, asking whether Australia might be “boxed in” like a racehorse on the rail, unable to move — or whether it could “break free” through higher productivity and investment. If it does, he said, “we could be off to the races.” The message is clear: boosting productivity expands the economy’s capacity and allows stronger growth without triggering inflation. Recent inflation data showed prices rising again, largely driven by energy costs. That reinforced expectations that the RBA would hold rates steady at its November meeting — which it did. The Bank remains confident inflation will continue to ease through 2024 and into 2025, eventually returning to its target range. But without stronger productivity, any pickup in demand could again fuel inflation. Hauser warned that most recoveries over the past 40 years have started with a bit of spare capacity — a cushion that allows growth without overheating. This time, he said, is different. Demand is already running slightly above potential output — the tightest starting point for a recovery since the early 1980s. That, he said, is the result of rapid demand growth in 2021 and 2022, a deliberately cautious monetary policy stance, and — crucially — weak growth in supply. If the economy truly is at or above capacity, there’s not much room for demand to rise without stoking inflation. But if there’s more hidden capacity than the data shows, rate cuts could still be possible down the track — a scenario that would be welcome news for millions of mortgage holders. The RBA’s broader message, though, is one of optimism. Australia, Hauser reminded the audience, has what it takes to thrive: world-class universities, deep capital markets, vast natural resources, and strong institutions. “If that doesn’t scream investment potential,” he said, “I don’t know what does.” And if investors seize that opportunity — Australia really could be off to the races. So while the RBA isn’t ready to cut rates anytime soon, the message from Martin Place is clear: the key to stronger, sustainable growth lies not in cheaper money — but in a more productive economy.
And just as the RBA pushes back on the idea of another rate cut, we’ve got a bit of good news on the sentiment front — consumer confidence has jumped sharply in November. According to Westpac’s latest survey, confidence surged nearly 13%, lifting the index to 103.8 points. That’s actually the first time since early 2022 that optimists have outnumbered pessimists — breaking a pretty long 44-month streak of gloom. Westpac’s head of Australian macro forecasting, Matthew Hassan, says the turnaround reflects growing signs that the recovery’s picking up steam — especially when it comes to consumer demand and the housing market. The real surprise, though, he says, is how those positives have managed to outweigh ongoing worries about inflation and interest rates. Now remember, the RBA kept rates steady at 3.6% last week — and Governor Michele Bullock made it clear she’s in no rush to ease again after three cuts earlier this year. So this burst of confidence will only strengthen the case for holding steady a bit longer. Most of the improvement came from households feeling better about their own finances — that particular measure jumped more than 12% to 109. And interestingly, that lift came even though mortgage holders were slightly less optimistic overall. So, in short: the mood’s brightening, spending might pick up — but the stronger the economy looks, the harder it’ll be for the RBA to justify another rate cut anytime soon.
You know, Australians might be getting another helping hand on their power bills — and it could happen within just a few weeks. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has hinted that the government is seriously considering extending the $75-a-quarter energy subsidy that’s been helping households and small businesses keep the lights on. That relief was due to wrap up at the end of this year, but with cost-of-living pressures still front and centre, it looks like Canberra’s getting ready to step in again. Now, extending that support wouldn’t come cheap — it could cost the budget up to $2 billion. But the government argues it’s made a real difference. Without those federal and state energy subsidies, electricity prices would’ve jumped more than 22% since mid-2023. Instead, they’ve only gone up about 8%. Still, both the state and federal support measures are winding down, and voters are starting to get anxious. A recent Resolve Political Monitor survey found that 42% of Australians say their number one concern is the cost of living — and that same 42% also blame the federal government for rising prices. So it’s not surprising that Albanese is weighing up his options. Here’s what he said this week: “We’ll always look at cost of living as our number one priority. We have a range of measures already out there, some of which just kicked in over the past week or so. But we also need to make sure the budget stays in good shape — it’s all about getting that balance right.” And on that front, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has some good news. When he handed down the budget back in May, he was expecting a $42 billion deficit for this financial year. But thanks to stronger commodity prices and a solid jobs market, the books are looking a lot healthier — about $17 billion better than forecast, in fact. To the end of September, the budget was already $5.3 billion ahead of expectations. So that gives the government a little room to move. Chalmers will deliver his mid-year budget update within the next five weeks — and that’s when we’re likely to find out if the energy rebate is getting another extension. Any decision would have to be locked in just before that update goes public. Albanese summed it up by saying, “We want an economy that works for people, not people working for the economy.” But not everyone’s convinced another round of subsidies is the right call. Independent economist Chris Richardson says the government’s got a choice between good policy and good politics. In his view, the original subsidies made sense when prices first spiked — but that time’s passed. He worries that keeping them around too long could make them permanent. And the business community’s echoing that concern. Andrew McKellar from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry says the rebates are just a short-term fix. His take: “At some point, those chickens have got to come home to roost. We need real, long-term solutions — more investment in future energy supply, more competition, and ultimately, cheaper power for business.” Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank seems to be done with its interest rate cuts — another key piece of the cost-of-living puzzle. So — more energy relief on the way? Maybe. The government’s clearly trying to balance fiscal responsibility with political reality. And as we all know — keeping power bills low is one sure way to keep voters switched on.
And a different kind of tech story is unfolding in Australia. The Albanese government’s ambitious goal of creating 1.2 million tech jobs by 2030? Yeah, it’s already facing a serious roadblock. Australia’s tech sector just took a nosedive, losing over 30,000 jobs in the 2025 financial year, which marks the first contraction since 2020. Not a good look when you’re trying to future-proof the country’s economy through technology. The loss isn’t just in tech firms either—it’s hitting non-tech industries too, where tech roles dropped by nearly 4%.” And here’s the kicker: the tech job numbers were supposed to be one of the major pillars of Albanese’s ‘Future Made in Australia’ agenda, which aimed for industrial growth through expanding the tech workforce. But this downturn could seriously jeopardize those plans, and the Department of Industry is saying the decline might continue unless something changes. It’s a tough spot, especially for a government that’s been pushing tech as a key to the future.
Shifting gears a bit—let’s talk about something that’s really making waves in Australia’s legal landscape: AI in the courtroom. Here’s the deal: self-represented litigants are increasingly using AI to help draft their dismissal claims. And it’s starting to cause some problems. We’ve seen a rise in employment disputes, and AI-generated documents are leading to bogus claims, fabricated precedents, and—unfortunately—wasted resources.” This is a serious issue. The Fair Work Commission, which handles these claims, has warned about the risks of relying on AI tools to write legal documents. And it’s not just minor errors—some of these AI-generated claims are referencing sections of the Fair Work Act that don’t even exist. Imagine that. Employees who could barely string together a sentence are now filing claims that look like they’ve come straight out of a legal textbook. It’s not just about tech advancing; it’s about what it’s doing to the legal system, and frankly, it’s causing a backlog. The Fair Work Commission is even preparing reforms to curb this.”
Let’s wrap up with a little finance talk from Australian politics. The Australian Labor Party had a surprisingly strong federal election result, leaving them with a nice little cash surplus—about $4 million more than expected. So now they’re eyeing new investments, trying to capitalize on this financial windfall, with the Prime Minister making moves to lock in candidates ahead of the 2028 election. That surplus came from Labor’s stronger-than-expected showing in the vote, and they’re making sure to spend that wisely this time around, after learning some tough lessons in 2019. On the flip side, the Coalition didn’t fare as well and is now facing a bit of a budget shortfall, though it’s not a crisis. But Labor’s win here is a reminder that in politics—just like in business—being able to read the numbers and adapt can make all the difference.
So to sum up:
It looks like Washington might finally be waking up again — the longest U.S. government shutdown in history could be ending. The Senate’s passed a short-term funding bill to get federal workers paid and airports moving again, but it came at a price: Democrats dropped their push to extend key Obamacare subsidies. Progressives are calling it a cave, moderates say it’s the only way forward, and Trump’s already claiming victory. Across the Pacific, Trump’s tariff war has backfired — at least when it comes to Australia. Exports to the U.S. are up 20% despite those “liberation day” tariffs, with beef, aircraft parts, and plasma leading the charge. Back home, the Reserve Bank’s in no mood for another rate cut. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser says the economy’s running near full capacity — any extra push could fuel inflation. His message? The key to stronger growth isn’t cheaper money, it’s higher productivity. The good news? Consumer confidence has jumped to its highest level since early 2022. People are finally feeling a bit better about their finances, which will only make the RBA more comfortable keeping rates steady. On cost-of-living, the Albanese government’s weighing an extension of energy bill relief — it’s helped households, but at a cost of up to $2 billion. We’ll know more at the mid-year budget update. Meanwhile, the tech sector’s taken a hit, losing 30,000 jobs last year — a setback for the government’s plan to create 1.2 million tech jobs by 2030. And in the courts, AI is causing real headaches. Self-represented workers are using AI tools to draft claims — some citing fake laws and cases — forcing the Fair Work Commission to step in. Finally, a little political finance twist — Labor’s strong election showing has left it with a $4 million surplus, while the Coalition’s tightening its belt. So all up — the U.S. might be back open for business, Australia’s economy is steady but stretched, and both sides of politics are learning that balance — fiscal or otherwise — is everything.
And that’s it for this week. And next week, I’ll be talking John Karabin, senior director of Cyber Security, NTT Australia on how businesses need to actively invest in emerging technologies that bolster the foundation of the cyber security sector, to be one step ahead of threat actors, or risk leaving businesses and citizens open to a wider range of cyber security attacks.
And I’ll be talking to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver about the RBA holding off on interest rates and if or when we can expect another rate cut.
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