Will the Brexit referendum finish David Cameron?

23 February 2016 6:52 pm

Now that the British government has set a June referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union, the big question is what happens to the Tories and David Cameron?

Why are the Tories are so obsessed with Europe and why are they so divided? The reality is the Tories are hopelessly split over it. Prime Minister David Cameron is pushing it but London Mayor Boris Johnson has come out in favour of leaving, as have five key Ministers. And the numbers inside the party are tight.

The reality is the Tories are still agonising over it because Europe helped bring down Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher fought and won a number of battles against what she saw as the excessive powers of Brussels. Europe ultimately brought about Mrs Thatcher's downfall as prime minister, as her increasingly anti-EU views led the pro-Europeans in her party to move to oust her. As Andrew Scott Crines says, the Tories now find themselves in terminal psychosis fighting over issues that have nothing to do with the EU, but everything to do with the Tories.

With a group of Tory MPs striving to destroy the UK’s relationship with the EU as a monument to their lost leader, Margaret Thatcher, the question is how will Cameron recover? Whichever way the vote goes, the Tories are in a state of civil war.

If Cameron wins this referendum, you can bet he will be hamstrung by his party. Within moments of the result, you can bet the anti-EU Tory party will be talking about another referendum. That will destabilise him to the point where he will be forced out.

If he loses, he’ll have to leave.

Either way, Cameron is finished. It’s just a question of when.