How Trump can win

23 July 2016 1:53 pm

Politico reports that Nielsen ratings data shows that an extraordinary 32.2 million people watched Donald Trump accept the Republican nomination on Thursday night across ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, Univision, Fox Business Network, CNBC and NBC Universo.

In a speech that polarised America, Trump proclaimed himself as the “law and order candidate” who could save America.

“Our convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation,’’ Trump said. “The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country.”

He also claimed to speak for ordinary Americans with an uncompromising reprisal of campaign promises on protectionism and immigration aimed at communities he said were “crushed by our horrible and unfair trade deals. These are the forgotten men and women of our country,” he told a packed crowd that repeatedly broke into chants of “U-S-A, U-S-A” and “build a wall!”. “People who work hard but no longer have a voice. I am your voice,” he claimed.

Trump was greeted with rapturous applause.

From the day he said he would run in June 2015, pundits thought Donald Trump's campaign for president was a joke and the odds are stacked against him. CNN’s prediction market gives him a 33 per cent chance and Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight site gives him a 41.3 per cent chance.

But Michael Moore says Trump is a shoo-in because he has the support of angry white men, who are the most dependable voters.

And he might get up too because white liberals’ response is ineffective and self-indulgent, they’re just talking to themselves, moving in communities where they are a majority. They’re not in the rest of the country.

It’s a point taken up by new media expert Clive Shirky on Twitter.

“Trump IS the voice of angry whites,’’ Shirley says. “He wasn't on stage because he has unusual views. He was on stage because he has the usual ones, loudly.

“He is the voice of whites who want their neighbors deported if they speak Spanish. He is the voice of whites terrorized by seeing a hijab. He is the voice of people who think legal & cultural privileges for white conservative Protestants are God's plan, not a bias to be overcome. He is the voice of people who hear 'hard-working' as a synonym for 'white.' He is the voice of people who think black lives matter less.

“He speaks for millions.”

“Trump has promised 40% of the country what they've always wanted: a racist welfare state. If he persuades 1 additional voter in 10, he wins.

“White liberals should know headcount is against us. In our communities, we're a comfortable majority. In the US, we're a permanent minority.

“Trump can win, if he can whip up white rage unchallenged, if enough women vote for him, and if Red states suppress black and Hispanic votes.”

The key to beating Trump, he says, is to get out into the poorer communities, to knock on doors and drive people to the polls.

Sobering thoughts.