How Trump’s nomination will devastate the Republicans
03 April 2016 9:41 am
The latest numbers portend electoral disaster for the Republicans and Donald Trump if he wins the GOP nomination as expected.
Nate Silver makes the point that all the polls showing Trump’s popularity say nothing. He says polls have historically not been very predictive early in primary campaigns, as candidates such as Rudy Giuliani, Howard Dean, Herman Cain, Rick Perry and Hillary Clinton (in 2008) can attest.
“The top-line poll numbers the media frequently cited don’t convey the whole polling story,’’ Silver writes. “Trump has consistently had the plurality of Republican support in polls, but those same polls suggest that Trump faces unusually high resistance from voters who don’t have him as their first choice.
“Put another way, the media may have been slow to recognize Trump’s popularity — it took a month or two after he launched his campaign. But it was slower to recognize his unpopularity, and Trump is a profoundly unpopular candidate with the broader American public.”
The Los Angeles Times reports that the share of Americans with an unfavorable view of Trump is extraordinary: 68 per cent in the most recent Bloomberg poll, 67 per cent in the CNN/ORC survey, 67 per cent in the ABC/Washington Post poll, 65 per cent from Gallup. Then there’s the 57 per cent unfavourable rating he received in the most recent CBS/New York Times survey. Even during the height of the Vietnam War,
Lyndon B.Johnson only reported 38 per cent unpopularity in the Gallup poll.
As Philip Rucker and Robert Costa point out in the Washington Post, if Donald Trump secures the Republican presidential nomination, he would start the general election campaign as the least-popular candidate to represent either party in modern times. Three-quarters of women view him unfavourably. So do nearly two-thirds of independents, 80 percent of young adults, 85 percent of Hispanics and nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
That explains why all the polling data shows that Clinton will wipe Trump in the general election.
The GOP will be committing political suicide if it nominates Trump.